Pound Sterling Exchange Rate Views

Pound Sterling Exchange Rates Set To Fall This Morning?

2012-01-25T08:48:00.000Z

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pound take a bit of a hit today as it sees three key data releases at once this morning.

Firstly, BOE minutes are released and with growing speculation and calls for further Quantitative Easing in the U.K (generally seen as negative for the Pound) the minutes will show how many members of the BOE voted in favour of (or against) more QE - An increase to the amount of positive vtes compared to last time will signal we are closer to seeing more QE and with the markets moving on rumour as well as fact this could dent the Pound.

On top of this, following numerous growth forecast downgrades last year we have GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, they are actually predicted to show a contraction which actually might work in the Pounds favour as if we come out with no growth or positive growth it could counter act the QE as it would be seen as much more positive than expectations, however if we do see negative growth then we are officially half way to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) and may drop rapidly today.

Mortgage approvals are the third of the trio today, in all honesty I think these may be overshadowed by the other two releases, all in all my personal opinion if this could be a hard morning for the Pound overall.

If you have an upcoming transfer to make, join the hundreds of people that have contact me directly through this site and found that I have got them a much better price than their current bank or broker….

Feel free to email me on djw@currencies.co.uk using subject header PSE with a contact number and what you are looking to do and I shall be happy to get in touch.

Retail Sales Slightly Better Than Expected In The UK - Minor Pound Strength

2012-01-20T10:46:00.000Z

U.K Retail sales were a little better than expected in data released this morning, which has led to a little Sterling strength so far.

We don't have a huge amount left on in the way of data today so much depends on sentiment and confidence, with a few surprises along the way no doubt.

If you have a currency transfer to carry out and want the best exchange rate then email me directly with the subject header FCD and I shall be more than happy to help. djw@currencies.co.uk

Pound weakness against Dollar and strength against Euro, Creeping up against the AUD, NZD and ZAR… U.K data of late is still poor so be aware!

2011-12-15T11:50:00.002Z

Some great movements seen of late for those looking to buy Euros, however you must still be aware of the problems within the U.K that are managing to slither beneath the headlines currency wise and the Pound is still making great gains against the Euro.

Unemployment in the U.K has hit its highest point in 17 years and we just this mornnig had much worse than expected Retail Sales results, there are consistent mentions of strikes in the U.K in many different sectors and there is certainly a grey cloud emerging over us for 2012, yes it might blow over and we may see blue skies towards the summer, but also it could open up to create a real downpour on the U.K economy.

I have many clients at present waiting for the golden 1.20 mark against the Euro however all I can say is this needs to be thought out more…. Just like setting your alarm clock in the morning it is very easy to aim for an exact figure like 07:30am or 08:00am, this is the same with currency rates, everyone aims for 1.15 or 1.20 – The problem you get is that when rates approach these levels they find it very hard to break through as thousands and thousands of orders get filled at 1.20 pushing rates straight back down again. Remember, you need rates to go over and above 1.20 to be able to buy at 1.20 yourself so this makes it very hard to achieve.

The sensible option is to aim for 1.19 and be one step ahead of the rest in case rates just don’t break through 1.20 enough and you miss the boat… That would be my tactic in this minefield of currency movements.

Great news for USD or AED sellers as all this uncertainty is pushing your rates in the right direction again, also those looking for the Antipodean Currencies AUD,NZD and ZAR) however remember these trends are very much short term at the moment and rate movements are turning around quicker than I can say Quantitative Easing (Although that does take a while!)

The key to this market is being in a postiion to book out a rate of exchange and making sure you don’t get too greedy, should you have an upcoming transfer to make be it buying or selling Sterling then feel free to contact me directly, leaving a brief message and a contact number for me to give you a call on – I can be reached on djw@currencies.co.uk Or you can fill in the enquiry form on the right hand side of this page.

European Agreement and how will it effect exchange rates?

2011-12-12T11:51:00.006Z

“If you are in the process of a large currency
transaction in this current market then do be aware holding out is not for the
feint hearted – It is going to be a rocky ride out there so get belted up!”

Market Summary

Currency	% change over FridH/L	Difference in £200,000
GBPEUR	0.68%	EUR 1100
GBPUSD	0.85 %	USD 2640
GBPCHF	1.35%	CHF 3880

European
Agreement takes shape

A historic agreement was finally put in place on Friday revolving
around deeper economic integration for EU countries. However, Britain (The
third largest economy In Europe) at present has refused to be involved, with
David Cameron feeling that concessions were just not there for the U.K
regarding financial regulations.

It could now take at least three months for these agreements to
fully take shape, as there are many loseable referendums along the way for the
26 countries involved.

This all leads to an interesting few weeks before Christmas,
reports in the Sunday papers yesterday suggested Nick Clegg is not happy with
the decision of Cameron, which indeed places further pressure on the coalition
– with political stability being a factor for currency strength, a break up or
even growing speculation of it may be very damaging for the Pound.
Also, over half of trade for the U.K goes through these countries,
and there is now the risk that the U.K could drift apart from the continental
mainland and relations both politically and in trade could slow down. Again,
whilst it is unquestionable that the Euro Zone has huge problems, the U.K has
many large ones of its own, and our while our Prime minister is busy at
countless meetings surrounding fixing the Euro – who is dealing with our
problems?

Usually, we put our predictions in our reports however with the
various complications that could be thrown into the hat this week in all
honesty I don’t know where GBP-EUR
will end up… David Cameron doesn’t know, Angela Merkel doesn’t know and with
something unprecedented like this I don’t believe anyone knows.
Instead, I will lay out the options available to you in order to
protect yourself should something really hit the fan in the next few days.

Option 1 – With the positive movement for
Sterling in the past week or so against the Euro, those looking to buy Euros could book out a forward contract, this is whereby you
can lock into a rate of exchange with us for up to two years with just a small
deposit. At the risk of sounding like a game show host, it could be a great
idea to lock in half of the currency you require and ‘bank’ the current rate if
current rates are above budget. For people due to receive Euros this contract
option could be the protection you have been longing for too, as we can take a
Sterling based deposit should you not have Euros in your coffers.

Option 2 – Should you not really wish to
jump in with two feet and lock in to a rate, yet wish to be protected if there
is a bug turn for the worse then a stop-loss
order may be ideal. You essentially can decide on a buying price you would not
be happy to go below, and if we see a sudden drop in rates, your currency is
automatically bought out at that level – even if it is at 4am on a Saturday…
This saves the busier of you from watching markets 24/7 yet keeps you
protected, we also offer a limit order which works the other way should there
be a rate you wish to achieve. Both of these orders can be cancelled or amended
at any time if not filled and do not cost you a penny to put in place. Contact
me by filling in the form on the right hand side of this page today to discuss
these in more detail.

Dollar to
benefit from all of this? Swiss devalue again?

Many analysts believe the big winner from all of this may now be the USD. In times
of uncertainty historically investors have ran to the perceived ‘safer haven’
of the USD, with gold being seen as a safe bet also being priced in USD, demand
for the currency increases and therefore so does its value.

If political matters in the U.K continue to take the headlines
along with riots, static interest rates and ever decreasing growth forecasts
then as an investor, although the States has problems of its own I know where I
would put my money, it would not surprise me now to see GBP-USD dip below 1.50
in the early part of 2012.

For the past few years the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen had taken
away some demand for the USD in uncertain times, with the Swiss Franc having
increased in value by over 50% during this global crisis at its peak. Since
then, both the Swiss and Japanese have moved to devalue their currency
artificially as the strength was starting to seriously impact their exports, in
fact there are growing rumours that the Swiss may devalue again and with their
interest rate decision due on Thursday, if you have Swiss francs to sell then I
would seriously consider the options mentioned earlier in this report, a second
devaluing could push GBP-CHF well above 1.55.

The Federal Reserve (US) Interest rate decision is also due on
Tuesday evening and the U.S have thrown a spanner into the works in the past so
for those with a pending Dollar interest make sure we are aware, fill in the form on the right hand side of this page and I will be happy to guide you throughout the process.

Data out today

A quiet day data wise today but I’m sure the markets will have plenty to react to
with the European announcements, which will probably be the talking point of
the week (yet again). Make sure your Christmas isn’t spent watching exchange
rates and get your protection in place, or at least let us be your eyes and
ears on the market for you – contact me directly djw@currencies.co.uk if you would like assistance or have any questions or queries
surrounding this report – Thanks for reading.

Sterling forecast for the end of November

2010-11-25T09:31:00.000Z

The Irish bailout has dominated the currency market over the last few weeks causing euro weakness and dollar strength as investors flood to the safe have greenback.

One release that could change this trend is the Confederation of British Industry, Distributive Trades Survey. This is due out at 11am this morning and is an indicator of short-term trends in the UK retail and wholesale distribution sector. At this time of year it is very important because in the lead up to Christmas retail sales are vital to the economy here in the UK. If we see a high reading, you would expected to see the pound strengthen as this is good news for the UK economy and subsequently for sterling. This could result in GBPEUR pushing up toward the 1.19 mark. Obviously the other side of this is that a poor figure could see sterling weakness, good news for anyone who has foreign currency to sell.

The markets will be keeping a close eye on this release as it can often have an impact on the formulation of economic policy at the Bank of England and within Government. With QE (quantitative easing) still a possibility for the Bank of England and the VAT rise on the horizon for the Government, any unexpected release could cause problems for either party.

If you are transferring funds overseas or bringing money back to the UK and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Euro crisis causing currency market volatility

2010-11-24T10:21:00.000Z

The banking crisis in Ireland is causing a great deal of volatility on the currency markets. Investors and speculators are moving to the safe haven USD, resulting in 1.2% gains against sterling for the greenback, and a massive 1.96% gains against the Euro.

This sort of USD strength was also seen during the Greek bailout earlier this year. For anyone who needs to buy foreign currency this has led to good sterling euro, but still sitting below year highs. It's not all good news for sterling as we have lost ground vs. the dollar leading to less favourable exchange rates. The pound has also lost ground against the AUD, and CHF in the last few days as the bailout poses problems for the UK, so the safer haven CHF, and high interest bearing AUD have benefited.

The problem for the UK and therefore sterling is that we have to provide around £7 billion in rescue funds. This equates to a significant portion of the budget cuts that the UK has made this year. However, we have little choice but to help the Irish, not just from a moral point of view but financially our banks are exposed to the tune of £140 billion to the Irish bank, therefore we cannot afford fro Ireland to become the new Iceland.

As the Irish economy is now well an truly under the spotlight we are again hearing about talk of contagion. This is where the problems in one country spread and affect other economies. For example Spain is also under scrutiny because they have high unemployment and low economic growth. The contagion issue was highlighted yesterday when during a Spanish bond auction (this is how governments borrow money), the government had to pay almost twice as much interest to sell their bonds. This makes borrowing a lot more expensive putting further pressure on the economy in Spain.

If we do see further contagion is Spain and Portugal we could see further Euro weakness. For any who needs to buy Euros this is good news, but if you are holding Euros and looking to bring them back to the UK, or convert to any other currency at the moment, you may well find that rates are more favourable now than they will be in the future.

If you have any upcoming currency transactions and would like to discuss your options with a specialist broker, just fill in the form on the right.

If you are transferring funds to or from the UK and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 01494 787 478 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBPAUD Forecast

2010-11-22T09:49:00.000Z

The Aussie Dollar is still going from strength to strength and is probably the strongest of the world’s major currencies over the last couple of years.

As the Australian economy managed to avoid going into recession, since the high of 2.65 back in October 2008 the pound has lost nearly 40% of its value and there is little sign of this trend abating.

For those looking to sell in Australia this is good news as a property worth AUD 500,000 would have cost GBP 188,500 a couple of years ago, selling at the same price now would achieve a staggering extra GBP130,000.

With the Australian Central bank having continually raised interest rates in recent months there is little sign of this trend stopping, again great news for anyone selling AUD. However for anyone looking to emigrate to the land down under or simply travelling as part of English crickets ‘Barmy Army’ to watch an historic Aussie bashing in the pending Ashes Series, I feel there is little for the pound to gain in the foreseeable future.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates and the Irish crisis

2010-11-18T09:44:00.000Z

Problems in Ireland have been well documented for some time; however in the last couple of months the cost of borrowing for the Irish government has spiraled. This is a huge problem for the country and has caused investors to worry about the stability of the Euro. There have even been some reports that many countries could pull out of the Euro within 5 years.

We have repeatedly heard rumors that Ireland may need billions of Euros in rescue funds. From an exchange rate point of view this has caused the euro to weaken. Unfortunately the pound has also suffered. Investors have moved away from perceived risky currencies such as sterling into the safe haven US Dollar. If a bailout is required, this could cause further sterling weakness as the UK may have to provide 12% of the funds, potentially as much as £8bn.

However, looking ahead anyone holding Euro’s who needs to bring funds back to the UK, it may be worth keeping a close eye on the market as the single currency could weaken more than the pound if the Irish do need bailout funds from the EU.

Today we have Euro Zone current account data at 09:00. Last month showed a net outflow of funds from the EU which is not ideal for the single currency. A similar release this month could cause further euro weakness. For further information on how this could affect you funds you can speak to a currency specialist on 0800 328 5884.

QE and GBP USD exchange rates

The pound had gained ground on the US Dollar when rates spiked earlier this month following news that the Federal Reserve will be releasing USD 600bn into the economy to prevent a double dip recession. Since then we have also seen the likelihood of QE in the UK fall drastically, but the pound has failed to make further gains against the Dollar.

This does not bode well for clients who need to buy US Dollars, and if we do see further problems in Europe the dollar could become even more expensive for anyone holding sterling.

Today it is worth looking out for US jobless claims, out at 13:30. A positive figure from the states could lead to further USD strength. If you would like to be kept up to date with GBP USD exchange rates stay in close contact with your account manager and he will be able to contact you if there is any significant market movement.

UK Data that could affect sterling

Today we have a host of data out for the UK that could cause volatility on the currency markets.

We have four releases at 09:30, the most notable of which is Public Sector Net Borrowing data. With national debt and budget deficit a huge issue for the UK at present these figures are vital for the UK economy. Any rise above expectations for public borrowing could lead to significant sterling weakness and in my opinion to rates falling below the 1.14 mark vs. the euro.

Also at 09:30 UK mortgage approvals; considering the housing sector has been performing poorly recently, and banks are still reluctant to lend. I would not be surprised if we do see a lower figure than last month’s 47k. I think PSNB data will overshadow this release, but a double whammy of bad releases could result in significant sterling weakness. On the other hand, positive borrowing figures could prevent any impact of bad mortgage approvals.

The other two UK releases at 09:30 are M4 money supply figures and retail sales data. The later is most important for sterling as retail sales are vital to the economy in the lead up to Christmas. Expectations are for a strong figure which could offset negative news about mortgages and public borrowing. With such a busy morning it may be worth discussing your transaction with your account manager. There are various currency tools available to you to help reduce the effects of adverse market movement and maximise the rate you achieve.

Why is the Swiss Franc so strong?

The Swiss Franc has gained almost 8% against sterling in 2010, on a transfer of £200,000 to CHF that’s an incredible CHF26,000 less that your sterling will purchase. The main reason for this movement is that CHF has benefitted from speculators looking for an alternative ‘safe haven currency’ to the Dollar.

While the USD does still hold the number one position, the CHF is becoming more and more popular resulting in an increase in demand and subsequently a higher price for anyone who needs to buy Swiss Francs.

On the plus side, anyone holding CHF will currently receive an excellent return on funds. Up to 8% if you bought francs in 2010, so if you are looking at selling CHF and would like more information please call 01494 787 478.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rate forecast today

2010-11-17T09:40:00.000Z

This morning at 9:30 sees the release of the Bank of England (BoE) minutes from November’s interest rate decision. While we already know that interest rates were kept on hold at the record low of 0.5% what will keep the currency markets interested is whether the central bank discussed re-introducing the Quantitative Easing (QE) programme.

We have seen in the past each time QE is mentioned Sterling weaken so if you need to send money abroad this morning could be absolutely key. With that in mind it could be worth speaking with one of our dedicated account managers before the data release on 0800 328 5884 who will be able to discuss all the options open to you

UK Inflation Rises

Meanwhile, yesterday morning the latest UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures were released which showed a surprise increase in inflation to 3.2%. With inflation so high Mervyn King, governor of the BoE, had to write the fourth letter this year to the Chancellor explaining why this had happened and what the bank were doing to bring it under control.

The struggle to keep inflation in check coupled with the lack of growth in the UK economy makes the predicament the BoE currently face a challenging one. However, the UK economy is not the only one to be facing testing times.

Euro Zone Struggles Continue

The EU president announced yesterday that the European Union is in a “survival crisis” due to the economies debt problems. The spotlight is currently on Ireland and Portugal’s huge debt levels and although Ireland are insisting they do not need to be bailed out (similar to their Greek counterparts prior to the Greece bailout) there is intense speculation the two countries will be forced into receiving a helping hand from the EU.

The pressure is building heavily upon Europe and the European Central Bank (ECB) so it could mean for those looking to purchase Euros over the next couple of weeks there could be some great buying opportunities. I would not be surprised to see exchange rates possibly pushing back up towards the 1.20 marker. So, if you do need to send money overseas contact us today on 01494 725353.

US Dollar

By close of trading yesterday the Dollar had strengthened nearly two cents against Sterling and one cent against the Euro as investors confidence in Europe and the UK remained low. Despite $600bn being recently pumped into the US economy it appears that due to the economic issues in other countries we could be seeing Cable fall back to the mid 1.50’s in the coming weeks. So, if you need to send money to the States speak to one of our knowledgeable currency brokers today.

Other Currencies

The Pound also lost further ground against the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) yesterday as we closed in on the best levels for selling NZD in years. With fears surrounding the major economies mainly, Europe, the UK and in part the US the Antipodean currencies have benefitted strengthening to some of the best levels we have seen. So, if you are looking at selling either Kiwi or Australian Dollars now could be a great time to contact me.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Ireland the bailout and the currency market

2010-11-16T09:36:00.000Z

Ireland was firmly back under the spotlight yesterday after it emerged from EU sources that discussions of a bailout for the country were well underway.

Ireland even now is denying such claims. As one of the PIGS of Europe, with a budget deficit expected to balloon, Ireland like others have proven to be a burden on the Eurozone and this is surely one of the main reasons why the single currency has suffered in recent weeks. The pound in particular has seen some tremendous gains against the Euro and pushed to a near seven week high yesterday. The Euro is suffering not just because of Ireland, but for fear of contagion, with Portugal likely to be the next problem. Over the coming days the Euro is likely to be very volatile as news comes out of a package which is rumoured to be somewhere between £51billion and £77billion.

The real question here is how much of an impact such emergency funding will have on the currency. If they can contain the problem then the Euro could reverse its losses and start to climb higher again. Expect volatility for the Euro to continue today and for the rest of the week, as details emerge of different scenarios and whether the other PIGS feel the pressure.

Bank of England Comments

Some early clues were given yesterday as to how the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted at the last meeting. Martin Weale who sits on the MPC suggested that the majority of members were still of the opinion that policy should remain unchanged with no need to raise rates or use further Quantitative Easing (QE). By the sound if it, if inflation is running high this morning, then this is one member we won’t see running to start the presses; if anything he could become more of a hawk in the coming months. His comments were likely to have aided sterling yesterday as the prospect of more QE has been slowly coming off the boil.

Australian Minutes

This morning saw the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia minutes which suggests the decision was “finely balanced” which has probably alleviated concerns of any further rises in the near term and the dollar has weakened off a little. To refresh, Australia surprised the markets and raised their interest rates earlier this month to 4.75%.

Pound rallies after economic future looks more stable

2010-11-15T09:35:00.000Z

Sterling made substantial gains last week, hitting its highest in 7 weeks against the Euro, and follows on from a 10 month high on the Dollar the week before.

The gains began following the Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation report and the subsequent speech by its Governor, Mervyn King which suggested that whilst economic growth in the UK was not particularly strong, there was very little risk of a double dip recession.

The news suggests the Bank of England are unlikely to need to extend their Quantitative Easing program in the near future, the threat of which was a major factor in dragging down the value of sterling in recent months. However this does not necessarily mean the pound will keep rising as there were other factors helping sterling exchange rates last week- such as problems in the US and Eurozone- which will be examined later in this report.

Also there is still a risk that if companies and consumers tighten belts over the Christmas period due to fears over the future of the economy and job security then economic growth may slip back and the prospect of QE may increase once again- bad news for the pound! Over the last two years sterling has all but collapsed in late December for a number of reasons, so if you are worried about an upcoming purchase and would like to lock in exchange rates on a forward contract to avoid an unexpected change then speak to one of our experienced currency brokers to find out how on 0800 328 5884

Short Term Future For Sterling

Whether or not sterling can continue its recent run of form will largely depend on a raft of data out next week, including more inflation figures, the minutes from the latest Bank of England meeting, unemployment rates, and retail sales figures. If all the information is relatively good for the UK then it would not be a surprise to see sterling to flirt with levels just below 1.20 on the Euro and into the mid 1.60s on the Dollar.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

German and European GDP

2010-11-12T09:32:00.000Z

This morning at 7am we saw the release of German GDP figures which came out slightly worse than expected, with Germany being the largest economy in the Euro Zone this has led to some fantastic buying opportunities in early morning trading. We are due to see the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data for the rest of the Euro Zone at 10:00am so anyone with an interest in buying or selling Euros may wish to contact their account manager first thing this morning, to discuss the various options available to you, as Euro exchange rates will no doubt be extremely volatile leading up to and following this release.

Recently, the U.K released their GDP figures and they actually came out much better than expected which has been one of the key matters that have led to Sterling strength of late.

The PIIGS of Europe – Will they return?

Personally, a subject I believe will be hitting the headlines again sooner rather than later is the well documented PIIGS of Europe (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the many problems these economies are facing economically. Following a huge media frenzy around the situation things now apparently have been swept under the carpet, however I believe it will only be a matter of time before things really blow up again. Potentially the tourist season has managed to carry them through the past few months and with Ireland in particular starting to hit the headlines once again those of you looking to sell Euros may wish to consider shifting funds sooner rather than later, as I would not be surprised to see levels pierce the 1.20 barrier against the Pound by the end of the month.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

RENEWED EURO FOCUS

2010-11-11T09:29:00.000Z

The Irish and Portuguese debt situations are alarming the markets once more so there is much volatility on GBPEUR.

Datawatch Friday sees Germany’s GDP figures at 7 am GMT, then EMU (European Monetary Union) GDP at 10 GMT. Germany is the major economy in the eurozone and has continually outperformed expectations. Expect a strong showing to give the euro a boost. This may eradicate the fantastic gains seen by sterling yesterday. Why not call us now on Freephone 0800 328 5884 to discuss your transfer?

USD DEVELOPMENTS

Since the Federal Reserve announced $600bn of further QE last week, the dollar had weakened significantly, however we have seen some strength. I feel this is because of the European Debt situation causing investors to ‘leave’ the euro and invest in the more traditional safe haven currency, the USD. Also the latest Trade Balance figures yesterday showed the US reduced its trade deficit, by $2.48bn dollars. Considering all the talk of US and ‘currency wars’ a reduction in their trade deficit is good news for the US.

A NEW WORLD ORDER – Why are certain currencies so volatile while others remain strong?

Does anyone remember when it was 2.5 Aussie’s to the pound? Or 3 Kiwi’s to the pound? I personally feel those days are long gone and these four currencies need to be seen in the backdrop of the economic mire that the Pound, Euro and Dollar are still in. They are all relatively speaking trading at very strong levels. Particularly against sterling we have seen them gain massively. Get in touch to discuss their outlooks in more detail if you have these requirements.

AUD, CAD, ZAR & NZD Increased global demand for raw materials is keeping the mining sectors very strong in Canada, Australia and South Africa and high interest rates are making all four currencies very attractive to investors. Contrast for example the longevity of the global mining industry against the UK’s much reduced manufacturing sector. The strength creates certainty for future economic development. In New Zealand the Unemployment rate recently dropped. The US and UK can only dream of this happening.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates look to GDP figures

2010-10-26T08:45:00.001+01:00

The pound has gained half a cent vs. the euro and the US Dollar this morning in advance of third quarter GDP figures for the UK. The expectation is for 0.4% growth significantly lower than the 1.2% growth experienced in quarter two. For sterling the low figure predicted has basically been priced into the market and the pound has lost a great deal against a number of currencies in the last month or so. This is not just due to GDP, but it is a large contributing factor.

The slowing of the economy here in the UK is increasing the likelihood of further QE in the UK which could cause further weakness for sterling. The recently announced austerity measures are also having a negative effect on sterling which is keeping exchange rates low across the board.

Today's GDP figure is released at 09:30, to discuss how this could affect the cost of your currency speak to an expert dealer on 01494 787 478.

If you need to send funds overseas and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 01494 787 478 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling predictions and exchange rate forecast

2010-10-25T11:48:00.000+01:00

The pound has now lost 5.8% against a basket of major currencies this year and is the worst performing currency in the developed world through 2010.

With sterling euro now trading at six and half month lows and sterling US Dollar at near two month lows, the pound is really suffering. The main driver behind the pound's current weakness is the increased possibility of additional Quantitative Easing (QE). This increases supply of GBP in the economy which reduces the price and value.

The UK's GDP figures for the third quarter are due to be released tomorrow at 09:30. These could be instrumental in determining exactly when and how much addition funds the BoE pump into the economy through QE. Therefore a poor GDP figure, below the 0.4% expected could increase the possibility of QE and lead to sterling weakness. I would not be at all surprised to see rates in GBP EUR fall below 1.10 if this is the case, and GBP USD fall below 1.50.

For sterling Australian dollar we have seen significant losses over the last few years. Since October 2008 when the pound hit 2.66, we have lost over 40% against the Aussie Dollar. The Australian economy has prospered throughout the economic crisis as its resource rich economy has driven growth. Furthermore the country was barely exposed to the subprime crises and has not had to pump funds into the economy in the same way that the US and UK have.

This week we have CPI (inflation) data out at 02:30 on Wednesday morning, a high figure could lead to interest rates going up in Australia (currently 4.5%) which would probably lead to further AUD strength. If you have any upcoming GBP/AUD currency requirements, I can run through this in more detail if requires. You can fill in the form on the right or call 01494 787 478 and I will be happy to explain the market movers.

If you need to transfer currency and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rate movers and forecast today

2010-10-22T09:07:00.002+01:00

Sterling has made small gains since yesterday against the Euro, with rates spiking at around 3am this morning.

This is always worth remembering as a well placed limit order can go a long way toward saving you money on your currency exchange. To find out more you can email me ajm@currencies.co.uk or fill in the form on the right. I've had several client benefit from overnight volatility in the market which is great news.

Today the key market movers to look out for are mainly from Canada, with CPI data out at 12:00 and retail sales data out at 12:30. Both could have some effect on GBPCAD if they vary significantly to expectations.

The only data of note for sterling euro has just been released from Germany. IFO business climate is widely watched as an early indicator of current conditions and business expectations for the next half year. Business leaders’ rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse and today’s figure has been released showing better than expected outlook in Germany. This looks to have caused some euro strength initially, with the single currency making small gains vs. sterling and the US Dollar.

Bearing in mind we have no other data of note out for sterling today, I'm expecting either a flat day, or possibly some small gain for the pound. I think some currency investors who have been profiting from sterling’s recent losses, may 'take their profit' and buy back into sterling causing the price to rise.

Retail sales cause further sterling weakness

2010-10-21T10:20:00.003+01:00

The pound has lost 30 pips vs. the euro and US dollar following significantly worse than expected retail sales for the UK.

Sterling exchange rates dipped after the announcement that retail sales fell 0.2% this month when expectations were for a 0.3% increase. This is particularly concerning as retail sales account for 60% of GDP in the UK. With yesterday's spending review detailing significant job losses for the economy, the outlook for the retail sector is bleak. It's also worth considering that VAT increase come into effect in 2011 and this could further damage an important but struggling sector of the UK economy.

For sterling this is all bad news, it is likely that the pound will suffer as a result of this news and I'm expecting to see 1.10 before the end of the year against the Euro.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates fall

2010-10-21T10:03:00.000+01:00

The pound has lost ground across the board this morning, and is down 0.8% vs. the euro and 0.4% against the USD, following yesterday’s austerity measures and Bank of England minutes.

The increased chance of quantitative easing (QE) appears to be the main driver for this fall at present. The BoE minutes shwed that a higher numbers of the members that vote for or aginst QE want to extend the programme to inject money into the economy. This type of news is bad for sterling exchange rates becuase QE increases the supply of money (pounds) in the economy, and an increase in supply as a general rule leads to a fall in value. The last time we saw QE in the UK the pound fell aginst most major currencies by an average of 4%.

Looking at the austerity measures, the spending review hasn’t really given us a great deal of detail as the chancellor stated that this information will be released over the coming days and will be eagerly anticipated as we see where the estimated half a million job losses will be.

An overview of the main cuts and announcements is detailed below:

-Structural deficit to be eliminated by 2015
-Approximately 490,000 public sector jobs likely to be lost
-Average 19% four-year cut in departmental budgets
-£7bn in additional welfare budget cuts
-Police funding cut by 4% a year
-Retirement age to rise from 65 to 66 by 2020
-English schools budget protected
-£2bn extra for social care
-NHS budget in England to rise every year until 2015
-Regulated rail fares to rise 3% above inflation
-Bank levy to be made permanent

Those analysts who oppose these deep cuts so soon after the UK has recovered from recession, beleive the economy is not able to take sucg a big hit. It is feared that this will send the economy back into recession. At present it’s more opinion than anything else, which makes it difficult to assess how the pound will fare in the future. Ultimately the reduction in spending should help the economy, but if we do head back into recession the timescales for recovery will be much further into the future.

It is possible to look at things in a slightly more positive way. If the unemployment casued by the austerity measures is absorbed by the private sector the economy may not suffer as much as some predict. This could result in slow but sustained eoconomic growth and could see the pound making gains in the medium term against most major currencies.

Ultimately the future exchange rate movement for sterling is very uncertain at present, even more so than normal. I think overal we are likely to see sterling weakness in the next 1-3 months, but I do anticipate some volatility as I have a feeling the market will be reacticing excessively to data releases. That is to say I think we will see overreactions. Good news will cause the pound to gain beyond appropriate levels where as bad news will casue losses of the same nature.

If you have an upcoming requirement to buy or sell sterling, or any other currency, fill in the form on the right to discuss your requirements with a currency expert.

To contact the author just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 01494 787 478 and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Currecny Markets await the Bank of England Minutes and Spending review details

2010-10-20T09:03:00.009+01:00

Sterling exchange rates are relatively flat this morning in anticipation of today's Bank of England Minutes and Government spending review.

If the chance of further QE looks more likely I would expect to see sterling weakness, but the main driver in my opinion will be the Austerity measures. We may not see an instant movement for sterling as it will really demand on how much information is provided. It could be filtered out over the rest of the week. As a result Sterling may not see dramatic movements instantly, but the overall tone and reception of the Chancellors speech will have some effect on the currency markets.

If you have a currency requirement, whether you are looking to buy or sell sterling for personal or business requirements, do keep a close eye on proceedings today. I the medium term, 3-6 months I am still expecting sterling to fall against most major currencies. Against the Euros I imagine we will see levels below 1.10 before the end of the year, and vs. the US Dollar I expect to see sterling trade below 1.50 in the next 3 months. This is (in my opinion) likely because the level of cuts that we are heading for are unprecedented and the economy is in a very fragile situation at present. I think that financial markets and speculators will see sterling as a risky currency therefore the value will fall. From a government and BoE point of view I think both will be happy to see as weak pound as it will help exporters in the UK.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 01494 727 478 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rate forecast

2010-10-19T08:34:00.000+01:00

I’m anticipating limited movement for sterling against most major currencies today as the Bank of England minutes and government spending cuts tomorrow will cause currency speculators to sit tight in advance of this news.

This means that for any risk adverse clients now may be the ideal time to secure your foreign currency and eliminate any risk of exchange rates moving against you this week. For those who have slightly higher appetite for risk, it’s important to consider how this week’s key issues could affect the value of your sterling, whther you need to buy or sell.

The Bank of England (BoE) minutes are expected to give some insight into how likely further QE is for the UK. Previously when the BoE has increased the money supply it has caused the pound to fall in value. Another bout of QE could cause sterling exchange rates to fall. In 2009, the last time the BoE pumped funds into the economy sterling lost around 4% against the Euro and US Dollar and I would expect to see a similar scale of losses, should QE be extended.

The minutes will not result in additional QE tomorrow, but they may give us some insight into how likely this is. I would not be at all surprised to see the pound lose 2-3 cents, vs. EUR and USD if the minutes from last month’s meeting show an increased number of the MPC members (Monetary Policy Committee), voting for further QE.

Also worth keeping an eye on is Mervyn King’s speech tonight at 19:50, this may also give a few hints on how likely QE is, as well as when the BoE anticipate being able to increase interest rates…. something that looks highly unlikely in the short term.

The second key market mover for sterling exchange rates this week is the government spending cuts due to be announced at midday tomorrow. The austerity measures are the most severe we have ever experienced in the UK and are expected to lead to significant job losses. This could result in increasing unemployment which in turn would be expected to have a negative effect on the economy and sterling. Retail sales in particular, which make up 60% of the UK’s GDP, could be adversely affected and subsequently economic recovery is likely to be jittery in the UK.
The Ernst and Young Item club announced yesterday, slow recovery is likely over the winter. This may have a negative effect on sterling as it makes the UK economy less attractive to investors, therefore reducing demand for the pound. Couple this reduced demand with expectations of an increase in supply through QE, and the outlook is quite bleak for sterling exchange rates. I would not be at all surprised to see GBPEUR fall below 1.10 and GBPUSD fall below 1.50 before the end of the year.

If you need to buy foreign currency but don’t have full availability of funds, for a small deposit you can lock into a forward contract to protect yourself from any adverse market movement. You cna find out more about forward contracts by speaking to a currency expert on 01494 787478.

Sterling weakness and outlook

2010-10-14T16:40:00.003+01:00

The pound has lost 6% against the euro from highs last month following a host of negative economic releases for the pound.

Falling house prices and consumer confidence, coupled with the increased chance of QE has resulted in less demand for the pound and sterling exchange rates have dropped. Unemployment figures yesterday showed fewer people out of work but unfortunately more of those that remain out of work claiming benefits. This caused sterling weakness because it increases the burden on the state to pay benefits.

However, the pound has gained back some ground today following news that the government will save £2billion per year by switching the way in which they calculate inflation for benefits. There is huge focus on government spending at present with the most severe austerity measures in a generation due to be announced ton the 20th, so this 'saving' is seen as positive for the UK economy and therefore the pound.

Sterling is up over half a percent vs. the euro and almost a percent vs. the USD. On large scale transfers this can make quite a big difference.

Data today from the States had a contradictory effect on the greenback. Jobless claim were up and trade balance was worse the expected both painting a negative picture of the US economy, inflation however has come out higher than expected, which tends to have a positive effect on the currency concerned.

Because the US Dollar is the world’s reserve currency these important releases can cause volatility between the worlds three majors; US Dollar, Sterling and the Euro. If you would like to discuss how this could affect your currency transfer, fill in the form on the right to speak to a currency specialist.

If you are buying a property abroad or need to send funds for business or personal transactions, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling euro and sterling australian dollar forecast

2010-09-30T09:37:00.000+01:00

The pound has gained back some of the ground lost yesterday against the Euro, following better than expected house price data from the UK (showing a small rise in the cost of property). Sterling gains have been limited by good unemployment figures from Germany showing lower levels of unemployment than expected. The pound is unlikely to make considerable gains v's the euro in the short term because we are seeing a great deal of uncertainty surrounding sterling at the moment. With government cuts coming up and a high chance of further quantitative easing, sterling is a risky bet for currency speculators and therefore many are staying away from the pound which reduces demand and subsequently the price.

One thing that could help GBPEUR rates is euro weakness, seeing as sterling strength looks unlikely! News from Ireland that AIB (the bank) may need up to €34bn in further bailout money has had just that effect today. However, pound has only gained about half a cent since yesterday even taking into account this news and the fact that we've had the positive UK house price release.

The Australian Dollar front we've seen support overnight as private sector credit data came out better than expected. This is a good indicator of the strength of the business activity in the Australian economy. As regular readers will be aware the Australian Economy has prospered in the last 2 years as the rest of the developed world has struggled through the credit crunch. Subsequently the AUD has gone from strength to strength gaining 38% from 2008 highs against sterling.

For anyone looking to buy AUD with sterling the outlook is not that promising. With government spending cuts and austerity measures set to be announced in the UK on 20th October, coupled with a significant chance of further quantitative easing, forecasts are for the pound to weaken more. If we see sterling weakness and Australian dollar strength 1.50 trading levels look like they may be a reality before the end of the year.

Pound sterling exchange rate forecast today

2010-09-28T09:23:00.001+01:00

Sterling exchange rates have started the day with mixed fortunes but remain relatively flat against most major currencies. The markets are a little uncertain in advance of this morning's GDP data, released at 09:30 am.

This could cause some significant market movement, if the figure released is different to the expected 1.7% QonQ growth.

We also have business investment data out at 09:30, which will be important as with the government spending cuts approaching, the private sector will be under a lot of pressure to support the economy. Subsequently the business investment figures, which show the amount of money that private companies have invested in the UK, will be important in the lead up to Christmas.

UK current account data is also due to be released by the National Statistics office this morning. A reduction could be good news for sterling as it will demonstrate increased flows of capital into the UK economy, and subsequently higher demand for sterling which should help push exchange rates up.

If you are holding sterling and need to buy foreign currency, if you want to achieve the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling weakness forecast 2010

2010-09-20T09:28:00.002+01:00

As the UK approaches the most drastic austerity measures ever announced by a British government, there are several other issues that I believe will have a negative effect on sterling exchange rates for the rest of 2010:

1. Interest rates are unlikely to rise in the UK, this reduces demand for sterling. We may need to hike rates to counter rising inflation (currently well above the government 2% target), but the economy is too fragile at present to handle an increase in the cost of borrowing

2. The upcoming austerity measures are the most severe we have ever experienced and this will create serious uncertainty in the UK and for overseas investors. This will reduce demand from overseas for the Pound causing GBP to lose value. it ma even encourage uK investors to look overseas for better returns, they would subsequently sell sterling causing the pound to fall in value.

3. I expect increasing unemployment to have a negative effect on retail sales, which make up 60% of the UK’s GDP and subsequently a negative impact on economic growth.

If you need to buy foreign currency, even if you don’t have full availability of funds, you can lock into a forward contract to protect your sterling from any adverse market movement. All you have to do is have a small deposit available and you can lock into a rate for up to two years a head. This can be particularly useful if you are buying a foreign property, or if you have business commitments that mean you will have to purchase a certain amount of currency by a set date in the future.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling Euro forecast

2010-09-17T09:50:00.001+01:00

Sterling euro exchange rates are tricky to call at the moment. For me, it really depends on the Government spending cuts in October.

The markets will ‘price in’ things that we know are going to happen, which means they’ve already moved so that the current price reflects the fact that we will see spending cuts (which in theory are bad for sterling) but also that as a result of the spending cuts the UK will reduce it’s budget deficit and national debt (which is good for sterling). Therefore, I would imagine that future movement will depend on how the government manage the balancing act between ensuring they save money and making sure the economy does not falter and fall back into recession. If the economy does slow down significantly we could easily see sterling euro rates at 1.15 (mid market).

So that covers the sterling side, very much an unknown at the moment. The other issues to consider are on the euro side.

The single currency has weakened significantly in the last year, not just against sterling but across the board (v’s JPY, USD, CHF etc), this is predominantly down to the issues faced in Europe with countries like Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain and Italy. The variety of problems faced can only be addressed with EU wide policies, but a policy that is right for the Spanish economy, may not be right for the German economy, and will almost definitely not be right for the Greek economy!

This inability to directly address economic problems causes concerns for investors and makes the euro less attractive. Last week for example it emerged the Greece may have underestimated their levels of national debt, this increases the chance of a default and weakens the euro. Other issues include huge unemployment in Spain and Portugal, strikes in France, and the potential for high inflation in Germany if interest rates cannot be hiked.

So overall we have to look at both sides of the situation and at the moment it’s more a case of which currency will weaken less in the short term? If I had to make a call, I would probably say the Euro will suffer the most, because the problems there are so widespread and difficult for policy makers to address.

If you are looking to buy or sell sterling and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling losses: retail sales and unemployment news weaknen the Pound

2010-09-16T09:39:00.000+01:00

Sterling exchange rates are mixed today with small gains v's the AUD and NZD, ( at the time of writing) however v's the EUR USD and several other currencies the pound has made losses. This currency movement echo's recent trends continuing sterling's weakness against the Euro and dollar. The pound has now lost 2.9% against the Euro and 2.5% against the dollar from highs in the last quarter. My personal feeling is that the impact of the upcoming budget cuts are weighing heavy on the pound. The unemployment that could be caused is very much an unknown quantity and this could be detrimental to the UK economy.

If there is enough slack in the private sector to reduce the impact of these cuts then the economy may escape unscathed. However, if there are not enough vacancies for those who lose their jobs to regain employments it could be a huge issue. if unemployment rises the cost of paying for those in benefits rises, in turn the tax take will be lower so government cost rise and revenue (tax take) falls. This is definitely not the way to reduce a budget deficit. From a currency point of view I would expect sterling to suffer as a result. Exchange rates could easily fall to 1.40 v's the dollar and head toward 1.10 v's the euro. If you then consider how sterling has been performing against the antipodean currencies like the AUD and NZD, we could see rates fall to all time lows.

Data Watch

Today we have had UK Retail sales data showing a surprise fall. On the day that John Lewis announced a 28% increase in sales many were expecting a strong figure from the retail sector. Following the release sterling has lost about half a cent against the US Dollar and the Euro.

If you need to exchange sterling and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Volatility for Sterling Exchange Rates

2010-09-15T10:07:00.000+01:00

The pound had a mixed day following early losses this morning. Uk unemployment figures were released showing an increase of the number of people claiming benefits. Considering the need to reduce government spending and the likelihood that this will increase unemployment, this increase in spending on benefits is not what the Government will have wanted to see. As a result the pound lost ground across the board, particularly against the Euro and US Dollar.

However, losses were reversed in the afternoon following an unusually frank speech from Mervyn King, the govenor of the Bank of England. He admitted to the TUC that the financial sector was to blame for the Credit Crisis and said that upcoming budget cuts were necessary to reduce the impact on future generation's. this helped the pound fight back a little as it highlights the importance of reducing sovereign debt and the budget deficit, but also reminds investors (who speculate with currency) that the UK will be in a better economic position if debt falls.

The questions is still whether the cuts will have too much of a negative effect on unemployment. If they do, sterling exchange rates could suffer in the same way as they did this morning following the negative unemployment data.

If you need to buy foreign currency or sterling and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

What could move sterling exchange rates this week?

2010-09-13T10:46:00.002+01:00

We have a host of economic data releases this week that could affect sterling exchange rates. The key ones to look out for are consumer confidence and consumer price inflation figures.

Consumer confidence will be interesting because we have the government budget cuts coming up on the 20th October. In theory this will have negative effect on confidence as it is likely to result in job losses which are obviously never a good thing for the economy. How this influences consumer confidence figures will really depend on how many people are surveyed who will be impacted by the cuts. The nationwide consumer confidence figures are meant to take a 'cross section' of the economy so in theory the result should be a good indication of sentiment in the UK. A negative release could cause exchange rates to fall as confidence is going to be key for spending in the economy looking ahead.

The consumer price inflation (CPI) data is an important release for sterling exchange rates. If inflation is rising too quickly, then the Bank of England can hike (increase) interest rates in order to counter the effect of inflation. This works as it reduces spending and encourages saving. In the UK inflation has been high recently, and this has led to some speculation that interest rates will go up in 2010. If this does happen it would probably increase the values or sterling so GBP exchange rates would increase as a result. However, for most analysts, a hike is unlikely because the economic recovery is too delicate at this point. Never the less a high CPI figure could cause a short term spike in sterling so it will be worth keeping an eye out. It could be a good spike before the budget cuts next month.

For more informaiton fill in the form on the right or email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates fall in advance of UK interest rate decision

2010-09-09T10:13:00.000+01:00

Sterling exchange rates improved yesterday as the pound made gains agaisnt the USD, Euro and most other major currencies. However, the day has started with negative movement this morning, with losses against most majors. The apparent reason for this weakness in sterling is uncertainty over the Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision today. However, it’s not the actual interest rate decision itself, it’s over concerns that more QE could be on the horizon. (QE is quantitative easing where the government create bonds and sell them to raise money).

QE may be used to aid the UK economy with upcoming speding cuts expected to damage the economy. With the UK’s most severe austerity measures just a month away from being revealed, there are significant concerns that the unemployment caused as a result. The expectation is that this could have a dramatic effect on consumer confidence, consumer sending, the housing market, and overall a negative effect on economic growth in the UK. The knock on effects for sterlign could be serious. If the BoE resume the QE programme in order to boost the UK economy the pound could lose 3-4% against a host of major currencies, most notably the Euro and USD. This would be expected because the increased supply of GBP in the economy, would result in a lower value for sterling.

If you are holding sterling and need to buy foreign currency, it may be worth getting in contact with me, you can email ajm@currencies.co.uk, and I will be happy to give you my opinion on future market movements. Even if you don’t need funds for some time, or if you don’t have all the money required available, you can book a forward contract to protect your funds from adverse movements in the value of sterling.

For any information on any currency pairs email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rate spike

2010-09-08T10:13:00.005+01:00

Sterling exchange rates have improved across the board today following further sovereign debt fears from Europe.

It has been a while since the sovereign debt crisis in Euro led to significant weakness for the single currency. in saying that, the Euro was falling from record highs against Sterling and the Dollar. however, the single currency suffered none the less. Concerns have arisen today that Greece may have mislead the EU about their levels of sovereign debt. (this is hardly a surprise based on previous behaviour from a fiscally challenged economy). However, the news has come as somewhat of a surprise to some investors and subsequently the Euro has weakened. This had led to excellent opportunities to secure funds for anyone holding sterling and looking to buy foreign currency.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling suffers from investor's flight to safety

2010-09-02T09:25:00.000+01:00

We have seen some significant movement for both the Japanese Yen JPY and the Swiss Franc CHF with both gaining considerable ground against the Pound and numerous other currencies.
The reason behind this is due to investors moving their funds to avoid risk. This is known as ‘flight to safety’. The reasons this can cause weakness because the so called investors we talk about (pension funds, currency traders, investment banks) are moving millions, if not billions of pounds at a time.

As these investors get worried about the general world economic situation they move funds out of a perceived ‘riskier currency’ such as sterling and into the USD, JPY or CHF. In recent years it's only really been the USD that has been the safe haven currency. however, now with the chance of a double dip recession in the US, investors are looking at the USD and other currencies as safe havens. For sterling this is not great news as the British pound is not viewed as a safe haven, and is highly unlikely to be in the future.

If you are holding sterling and want the best exchange rates when buying foreign currency, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates fall after weak data releases

2010-09-01T08:53:00.003+01:00

There have been a host of UK releases following the Bank Holiday weekend which have helped contribute to sterling weakness and the pound has dropped by over 1% against the euro.

The only good news came suprisingly from consumer confidence figures, showing it had improved in the UK. Expectation was a for a decline and although the figures came in better than expected they did come with a warning in that they should be taken with caution with looming government cuts ahead. This will have help seterling a little but the overwhelming negative data probably oversahdowed and casue the pound to fall.

Net mortgage lending last month fell to just £86 million compared to £518 million the previous month which was probably the main driver for sterling’s weakness yesterday. Looking forward the figures draw attention to a flat housing market. As one of the engine rooms for consumer expenditure it highlights the economy is still a long way off from normality and from the currency perspective sterling is unlikely to break higher in the foreseeable future.

Data Today

There are a number of important releases this morning starting with German Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August for the manufacturing sector released at 08:55 and the same for the Eurozone as a whole at 09:00. UK PMI also for the manufacturing sector is released at 09:30. With Eurozone unemployment still running at 10% these releases could shape the markets today.

Expect to see a lot of movement on the US dollar later as there are a number of releases including US mortgage approvals and employment data. The ADP employment change for August is released at 13:15 and is expected to show a small improvement of 20,000 down from 42,000 the previous month. With so much riding on the state of the US economy these releases are likely to have a big impact today. Non Farm Pay rolls this Friday will also be key.

If you are buying a property abroad, or converting sterling for any reason at all and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling weakness as US data leads to forecast of economic woes

2010-08-20T09:19:00.001+01:00

Sterling has had a bad start to the day and has lost ground across the board this morning as a result of increasing Jobless figures from the states. We appear to be seeing the US Dollar benefit from risk aversion and weakness for sterling as investors move away from the pound due to it’s volatile nature. Unfortunately investors who move huge sums of currency around can really influence the market when they get spooked, and the job figures suggest the US is on course for a double dip recession and speculators are concerned about how currency markets will be effected.

The jobless data from showed that continuing claims have risen by 13,000, to almost half a million people out of work in the US. With most currencies you would expect to see the weaknes as high unemployment is costly for the government and has a negative effect on GDP (economic growth). I would expect to see the pound to close in negative figures for the day, against the Dollar and Euro as well as most other major currencies.

For more info email me ajm@currencies.co.uk. I have a high volume of ZAR and CAD transactions to secure today, so if you are dealing in eaither of these currencies it will be worth getting in touch to see how I can help.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Minor sterling exchange rate strength

2010-08-18T15:10:00.000+01:00

The pound has gained back some of the ground lost yesterday and increase in value by 0.5% v's the Dollar and 0.35% against the Euro at the time of writing. This positive movement came following the bank of England Minutes this morning, showing an 8-1 vote in favour of keeping interest rate on hold. The minutes also showed that at present there are no plans to extend the banks Quantitative easing programme.

this is good news on the QE front, as if more was to take place we would expect to see sterling exchange rates fall and this is really the main factor behind today's gains. Had the bank talked about the possibility of rates rising in the future, we may have see further sterling strength but this was not the case.

From the US new housing starts data showed a slight rise but was still not a great figure, this has caused a little USD weakness, so sterling is now up at 1.5650 mid market v's the US currency.

Over the rest of the day we don't have any more key data for sterling euro or the dollar but we do have New Zealand inflation data out at 11:45, so anyone with a kiwi dollar requirement may want to keep an eye on this, (if you're planning on a late night!). Last months figures were relatively low and sterling gained ground v's the NZD, so this could present a god opportunity for anyone who needs to buy New Zealand dollars with sterling.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling Exchange Rates, the week ahead

2010-08-16T09:30:00.000+01:00

It's a busy week for sterling on the currency markets as we have a number of key releases for the pound. The most notable are the Bank of England minutes on the 18th, and Public sector net borrowing figures on the 19th. The Minutes may give further insight into the chances of further Quantitative easing (QE), in the UK. If we do see more QE it could have a negative effect on sterling exchange rates. The pound fell dramatically last time we saw QE so if you are holding sterling keep a close eye on this as any change in the forecast for QE could have a negative effect.

PSNB has come into real focus since the election and sterling has been volatile around release time, pound rates have been driven by results. The figure has come into focus because the UK has such high national debt and budget deficit. For more information, you can email me ajm@currencies.co.uk . (Let me know that you have been reading the blog if you do email!)

In other ares we have data releases that could effect sterling exchange rates and forecast for the pound. we have EU inflation data tomorrow, which is expected to be low, this could cause Euro weakness. We also have German economic sentiment figures tomorrow. As Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone this could cause volatility for sterling euro exchange rates.

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If you need to make a currency transfer and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Guess the exchange rate and win £1000

2010-08-13T16:40:00.000+01:00

Do you fancy yourself £1000? All you have to is predict what the GBP/EUR rate will be on 31st August at close of business.

Foreign Currency Direct are running a competition which is completely free to enter and takes just a minute of your time… I have guessed 1.1979 but feel free to comment on this post and see if you can get closer than me…..

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If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Pound Sterling forecast for a tough day

2010-08-13T09:30:00.001+01:00

Sterling exchange rates have increased by 0.3% v's the US Dollar but are down a touch against the Euro. It's a relatively busy day on the markets today we've already had German GDP coming in significantly better than expected at 3.7% this morning.

We also have EU GDP figure out at 10am, this is a big one to watch and could cause serious volatility. A release worse than expected could lead to some Euro weakness, although if the strong German data is anything to go by, we could see some Euro strength. I guess the question is, how much have the PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain) of Europe dragged down the likes of France and Germany?

In the afternoon we look across the pond to the US, where we have consumer price index (CPI) data at 13:30, followed by Retail Sales data at 14:30. News from the states has been very down beat recently and therefore I am expecting to see poor figures. Unusually with the USD we don't always see the movement we would expect when we get bad economic news from the states. Because the Dollar is the reserve currency of the world, and investors often buy the USd in times of economic uncertainty. This is known as a 'flight to safety' or risk aversion. As the world economic outlook is uncertain we are seeing investors buy the USD making it more expensive.

As a result, if we do see negative data from the US today, you could see the US Dollar strengthen against sterling. This means your sterling would buy you fewer USD.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates fall after inflaton report

2010-08-11T13:48:00.001+01:00

Mervyn King delivered his Quarterly Inflation Report (Bank of England Governor) outlining growth and inflation forecasts for the UK.

The main news is that the UK's growth forecast has been revised down and inflation is expected to come back under the Bank target of 2% by 2012. The growth forecasts have been revised from 3.6% to 3.0%, which actually may come as some what of a relief in some areas of the market as there was some speculation that this revision could be as low as 2.3%.

Concern for Sterling is most likely to centre on the BoE's forecast that inflation will only come back under the 2% target in 2012. This suggests that the bank expects to see price pressures ease significantly and consequently there will be little pressure or need to raise interest rates any time soon. Therefore it may be after Q1 2011, before there is any need to hike interest rates. The brighter side of this inflation forecast is that it suggests the Bank of England do not see Stagflation (when inflation rises and growth slows) as a significant threat to the UK economy.

The pound has already lost significant ground against the USD, 2 cents in the last 18 hours. Considering the fundamental economic outlook in the UK has worsened significantly in the past few weeks, I think it's unlikely that the market will be shy in selling Sterling over the next month.

For further information just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling Weakens on Housing Data - look out for unemploment and inflation news

2010-08-10T09:24:00.000+01:00

RICS house price data today showed that the UK housing sector is stalling and this has caused the pound to lose ground v's the Euro (down to 1.19's) and the US Dollar (down to 1.58's). The news backs up reports from Halifax and Nationwide showing the housing sector is slowing. Now focus in the UK will turn to inflation data and unemployment figures both out tomorrow. these could both have a significant effect on sterling exchange rates.

Looking ahead unemployment is likely to be a big issue as public sector spending cuts are likely to lead to higher unemployment from the Autumn. This has also lead to reduced consumer confidence and as a result people in the UK are saving more and spending less in the economy, This has a knock on effect to retail sales and ultimately to economic growth. If we see rising unemployment and slowing or falling GDP growth, we would expect to see sterling weaken.

If you have an upcoming currency requirement, I will be happy to help you just let me know by emailing ajm@currencies.co.uk

If you are exchanging sterling and buying foreign currency and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Reasons to sell sterling (and buy other currencies)

2010-08-09T09:40:00.002+01:00

This article may seem like a contradiction for anyone who read my previous post 'Is Belgium the next crisis zone in Europe?', however this emphasises the difficulty in making a clear forecast for sterling exchange rates at the moment.
The previous post suggests that looming problems in Belgium could weaken the single currency, while this remains the case there are several clear arguments as to why now is the right time to sell your sterling to buy another foreign currency.

Reasons to buy foreign currency and sell sterling:

1. the Bank of England are highly unlikely to raise interest rates in the near term, despite one member voting for a hike

2. The debt reducing budget last month had a positive effect on sterling, but this is now priced into the market and unlikely to cause any further positive movement

3. Focus is likely to turn from the debt reducing aspect of the budget to the cuts and potential unemployment and reduced spending that this could lead to

4. Exports have been cited as an area of the economy that could pick up the slack, this is unlikely bearing in mind export performance over the last 2 years

5. If we do see a slow down in the economy, the MPC are willing to resume quantitative easing, in the past this caused significant sterling weakness

So if you are considering sending funds overseas, be it for personal or business reasons, please feel free to give me a call on 0800 328 5884, or email ajm@currencies.co.uk and I will be happy to run through the various options to safeguard your rate of exchange.

visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Is Belguim the next crisis zone in Europe?

2010-08-09T09:25:00.000+01:00

After a non eventful week for sterling euro exchange rates last week, we could see more volatility this week. Reports are emanating from Europe that the Belgian economy could be in real trouble. The country has come under increased scrutiny from analysts as a result of it's huge national debt, well above 100% of GDP, and only lower than Greece and Italy. The big problem for Belgium is that many of it's creditors (people it owes that 'debt' to) are foreign creditors. Therefore they have little control if debts are called in.

Another big issues for Belgium is political uncertainty, as the county is divided between the Northern Flemish and southern Walloon. They have no permanent government which creates instability and further adds to concerns. This could result in problems for the euro, potentially causing Euro weakness. That would mean anyone holding sterling could benefit from better exchange rates, if problems in Belgium do come under further scrutiny.

If you are sending funds overseas and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates look toward interest rate decision

2010-08-05T11:18:00.008+01:00

We have an interest rate decision in the UK today, and although we are not expecting to see base rate movement we could well hear more about Quantitative Easing (QE) in the UK. This is where the Bank of England effectively 'print money' and in the past 18 months, when QE has been carried out, it has had a negative effect on sterling. The basic issue for the pound, is that an increase in supply reduces the value and therefore lowers the value.

I don't think we will see any more QE today, but we may receive some hints about the likelihood in the future. With budget cuts and public sector job loses expected in the UK, QE may be needed to give the economy a short term boost.

Other data to look out for today is the ECB president Jean Claude Trichet's speech, at 13:30. This could cause some Euro strength, making the single currency more expensive to buy. In the past the ECB have been very bullish (positive) when discussing the Euro zone and euro economy and now that the banking stress test have been carried out I'm expecting positive rhetoric from the ECB.

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Any questions, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling hits six month high v's the Dollar

2010-08-04T09:01:00.001+01:00

Sterling has made some good gains this week against the Euro and US Dollar following positive UK banking news and a former MPC member saying that he expects interest rates to be 2.5% by the end of 2012.

The banking news, from HSBC has been followed up today with a good set of figures from LLoyds, which may well help the pound make gains in trading this morning. The interest rate news came following comments from John Grieve, who used to sit on the MPC (the body that sets UK interest rates). He said he expects rates to rise quicker than anyone imagines, as once the economy is recovering inflation will rise rapidly and interest rates will have to go up to keep them under control. This is seen as good news for sterling because it increases the return investors receive on sterling, which in turn increases demand for the pound, pushing the price up.

As a result sterling has risen further to hit a new six-month high against the dollar, with analysts pointing to both rising confidence in UK economic prospects and worries about the potential for a double dip recession in the US. The have even been rumors from the US that further credit easing will be required to help the economy and this could cause further US Dollar weakness.

Despite the current positive UK outlook and negative news from the US, things can change very quickly, particularly with the government spending cuts coming up over the next few months. This really could have a negative effect on unemployment and growth in the UK.

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling Exchange Rates Hold Firm

2010-07-28T09:26:00.001+01:00

Sterling exchange rates held firm yesterday making small gains toward the end of trading. A positive retail sales report from the Confederation of British Industry helped the pound strengthen against the Euro US Dollar and New Zealand and Aussie Dollar's to name a few. It must be noted that changes in expectations of an interest rate rise in New Zealand did also help weaken the NZD.

The key high point to note for sterling at present is in Sterling USD Dollar exchange rates (GBPUSD). We currently sit at a 5 month high for sterling v's the Greenback so anyone looking to buy US Dollar may want to consider their options. US GDP figure are out on Friday and a strong figure could cause strength for the US currency which would make it more expensive to purchase. While we have had some positive news out over the last few weeks for sterling, it is worth considering that spikes like the current one are often short lived. It wouldn't surprise me at all if interbank levels were to drop back toward the 1.50 mark during August.

For Sterling Euro, keep an key on German consumer price index data today. We had high inflation figures from Europe last week which caused some single currency strength and a similar release today from Germany could help the Euro strengthen again.

If you are have any upcoming currency requirements and aim to get the best exchange rates, email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Pound Forecast July 2010

2010-07-27T12:01:00.003+01:00

We have four days left of currency trading for July 2010, and overall Sterling appears to have held up well. We've seen a swing v's the Euro this month of about 3.2% from hi to low, and for sterling dollar about 4.1%. For pound euro exchange rates the strong GDP figure from the UK has helped and the banking stress tests have also ensured that the single currency has not made any significant against over sterling.

For cable (GBP USD), we've seen some really positive movement for sterling exchange rates which seems to be due to the UK GDP figures and a degree of US Dollar weakness. The dollar has lost value across the board as confidence has increased a little in world markets. This can mean that investors move away from 'safe haven' currencies like the US Dollar. That appears to have been the trend during July 2010. Inventors have moved away from the dollar into the Swiss franc as a safe haven and other currencies like sterling if they are willing to take more risk.

The actions, sentiment and reasoning for 'internatinal investrs' is often a little confusing, and can even seem contradictory at times. However, in many cases it can have a hug effect on exchange rates. If you would like to find out more, please feel free to email me ajm@currencies.co.uk .

If you have any currency requirements and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Exchange rate forecasts and data for the week ahead

2010-07-26T09:21:00.000+01:00

In contrast to last week it is a relatively quiet week for the UK in terms of economic data releases, so focus is on Europe and the States. These releases can cause peaks and troughs in sterling exchange rates and can therefore have a big effect on the cos of a foreign currency purchase or the value of your funds if you are bringing funds back to the UK.

USD forecast and Data releases

US New Home sales –Today - 15:00 – data from the US has been extremeley downbeat recently, with the Fed reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke saying thats the economic outlook is "unusually uncertain". There are serious fears amount analysts and investors that further bailouts will be required for the economy and that even with such assistance, the US could still experience a double dip recession. I would not be at all surprised to see a poor new homes sales figure today, as the uncertainty in the markets has a negative effect on house purchases. This could have a positive effect on sterling dollar exchange rates, as if the USD was to weaken it would become cheaper to purchase.

As an asside for the US housing data it's worth remembering, it was the US housing market problems that effectively led to the credit crunch, so this release is key for the US Dollar, as a strong housing market is viewed as essential for the US economy to prosper.

US Consumer Confidence – Tuesday 27th - 15:00 – as with the new home sales figures I’m expecting a poor release. I believe consumer confidence will have reduced significantly, so we could see GBP USD exchange rates push on towards the 1.57 mark.

On Friday we also have US GDP figures, which could be key for anyone with a USD requirement, with double dip recession key for the US, you may want to avoid any further exchange rate risk. If this is the case you can use stop loss and limit orders, or a forward contract to protect your funds from adverse exchange rate movement. If you would like any further information on any of these foreign exchange contract types, email me ajm@currencies.co.uk .

Euro forecast and economic data releases

German Retail Sales - Tuesday 27th - 07:00 – the German economy has been one of the few in the euro zone posting strong economic figures. Last month retail sales showed an increase of 1%, so if we see a figure much high than this then we could see some Euro strength. This could lead to sterling euro exchange rates falling back toward the 1.17 mark.

German Consumer Price Inflation - Wednesday 28th- TBC - if high inflation figures last week from europe are anything to go by, we could see some Euro strength if German inflation is higher than the 0.1% expected.

Sterling forecast and economic data releases

UK GFK consumer confidence - Thursday 29th – releases from the UK last week showed strong GDP and retail sales. However, I beleive looming public spending cuts and further austerity measures will have a negative effect on confidence. We could therefore see some sterling weakness following this relesase.

Other economic data releases from accross the globe

Japan - Friday 30th - 00:30– Jobless rate and CP Inflation data - unemployment is at a 6 year high so watch this release if you have a JPY requirement as it could cause some JPY weakness. On the CPI front, long term low inflation means there is little need to change Japan’s rock bottom interest rates. A higher figure may lead to speculation of a small rate rise, which could strengthen the Yen.

New Zealand - RBNZ Interest rate decision – Wednesday 28th- 22:00 - Expectations are for rates to be kept on hold, but any suprise movement could see Kiwi Dollar volatility. If we saw a hike for example, sterling dollar exchange rates could fall back toward the 2 dollar mark as the kiwi dollar would probably strengthen as investors would receive a better receive on their funds.

If you are buying a property abroad, or need to transfer foreign currency to or from the UK and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog
GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling exchange rates rise on forecasts of Stress Test problems

2010-07-23T16:10:00.000+01:00

Sterling made considerable gains v’s the Euro and US Dollar on Friday following strong UK GDP Figures. The economy grew by a faster than expected 1.1% in the second quarter of the year, almost double the 0.6% growth rate expected by economists.

Initial reports suggest that much of the growth came from the key services sector, and considering that the UK economy is heavily driven by the service sector this could be good news looking ahead for sterling exchange rates.

As a result current exchange rates are up 2.2% v’s the Euro and 3.2% v’s the US Dollar from the lows this month. This creates and excellent opportunity to buy foreign currency. Email me for more information ajm@currencies.co.uk .

If you are buying a property abroad and want the best exchange rates, just email ajm@currencies.co.uk / call 0800 328 5884 or visit www.currencies.co.uk and quote AJM Blog GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling gains forecast as GBPEUR and GBPUSD exchange rates improve

2010-07-22T10:25:00.006+01:00

Sterling has made gains against the Euro (EUR) and US Dollar (USD) following better than expected retail sales figures for the UK. With GDP figures due for release tomorrow at 09:30 this is good news for the economy and will increase confidence that tomorrows figures will come out at 0.6% as expected. Earlier in the week sterling exchange rates were down as the forecast for GDP looked a little optimistic. These retail figures suggest otherwise.

If sterling exchange rates are to push on as forecast by many analysts strong economic growth will be essential. A strong economy is usually reflected by a strong currency. However, the pound is currently at low levels against a host of major currencies. GBPUSD exchange rates are far lower than they were 2 years ago, around 24% and the same can be said for GBPEUR exchange rates.

If you are likely to have foreign exchange requirements involving sterling and any other currency, keep a close eye on GDP figures. For more information you can email me ajm@currencies.co.uk.

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Pound sterling forecast a busy week ahead

2010-07-20T09:36:00.003+01:00

It's a busy week for sterling, Public Sector Net Borrowing figure just came out slightly worse than expected. We also have the Bank of England Minutes tomorrow and retail sleas data on thursday. However the big one for the week is on Friday, with UK GDP figure out. This could point to future interest rate movement which can have a big effect on the market.

So far today, GBP EUR is down over 1/3rd of a percent and GBP USD is flat. The pound has lost ground following the PSN Borrowing figures this morning and this trend could well continue as natial debt and public borrowing are key issues for the Uk economy at present.

GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP, USD, CAD, NZD Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-06-23T10:33:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

All eyes yesterday were focused on the much anticipated emergency budget from then new coalition government. As expected the budget was tough, but to my surprise, we were to see GBP exchange rates react positively against most major currencies.

Below is a brief overview of the Chancellor’s emergency budget:

VAT increase
Public sector pay freeze
Child benefit frozen
Housing benefit cuts
Disability Living Allowance cuts
Tax cut for lowest paid
Two year council tax freeze
Capital Gains Tax increased
Bank levy
NI tax holiday for job creation outside South-East of England

In George Osborne’s opening words he described his budget as "tough, fair but unavoidable" as he unveiled the biggest package of tax increases and spending cuts in a generation, most notably increasing VAT from 17.5% to 20%. Other notable moves included freezing child benefit for three years, a public sector pay freeze, 25% cut from government department budgets and, in addition to the VAT increase, which Mr Osborne said would raise £13bn a year, capital gains tax will be increased to 28% for top rate taxpayers.

Labour, unsurprisingly, condemned the budget saying it was "reckless" and would "throw people out of work".

Investors concluded the new government's first budget was tough enough to address the UK's fiscal problems and keep ratings agencies from downgrading its sovereign debt. Analysts, however, said longer-term worries over the impact of significant fiscal cuts on growth in the UK economy were likely to hamper sterling rallies.

I personally still have the opinion that in the short-medium term Sterling may suffer and would expect GBP/EUR to trade below 1.20 in the coming days and GBP/USD to head towards 1.45. To take a longer term view however I feel rates will improve and we will see GBP/EUR at 1.25 and GBP/USD at 1.50 by year end.

Data Likely to drive the market today

In the aftermath of the budget today we have a number of data releases that are likely to cause volatility throughout the course of the day. For those with a GBP/EUR currency requirement we have a number of important figures due for release starting with German consumer confidence and PMI (Purchasing Managers Index captures business conditions in the business sector) before 09:00, we have the Euro Zone PMI at 09:00, the Bank of England minutes at 09:30 (this can move the markets significantly and should be closely monitored) and also at 09:30 UK Mortgage Approvals.

For anyone with an interest in the CAD, USD and NZD we have Canadian Retail Sales figures at 13:30, the FOMC minutes (Federal Open Market Committee equivalent of the MPC in the UK and again can significantly affect USD rates) at 19:15 and finally NZD GDP data at 23:45.

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GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP/EUR, GBP/USD and GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-06-04T08:56:00.004+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

GBP EUR exchange rate high

The pound has made considerable gains in trading this week and currently sits close to a 19 month high against the Euro. Spikes like this are often short-lived, and in my opinion the pound could lose ground against the Euro next week, falling back toward the 1.17 mark.
The good news is that interbank rates are currently more than 2 cents above this level. If you are looking at buying euro's over the course of the next month, now could be the perfect time to buy on spot, or lock into a forward contract. It is worth taking note that EU GDP figures are released at 9:30 today, this could cause market volatility, so bearing in mind the current spike it may be worth locking in now as I feel rates do look attractive at the current level.

GBP USD Exchange Rate Forecast

The pound has faired badly against the USD losing over 5% in the last month, looking ahead at today’s releases the key market movers are likely to be non-farm payrolls and unemployment data.

Due to the huge size of the US economy and numbers of people involved, this is always a difficult figure to predict. As a result, expectations can vary significantly from reported figures and this can lead to market volatility. Based on strong economic data from other areas of the US economy, some analysts may be expecting a fall in unemployment. However, if yesterday’s Jobless Claims figures are anything to go by, (showing a slightly higher than expected number of claims), we could see poor figures released today.

GBP AUD Exchange rates

In the last few weeks, GBPAUD has increased in value by around 10 cents. However, in the last couple days we have seen the Australian currency gain back some ground. If you have an AUD requirement it may be worth considering your options as we remain close to a 3 month high. Look out for consumer confidence and unemployment figures next week, as well as any further developments surrounding Chinese demand for Australian raw materials.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

What is likely to drive GBP exchange rates today?

2010-05-19T08:45:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today we have a number of data releases that are likely to cause volatility throughout the course of the day. For anyone with an interest in GBP/Euro, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY we have a number of data releases that you should pay close attention to, most notably the Bank of England minutes due for release at 09:30. This will highlight any announcements with regards to future monetary policy. As of late most analysts predict interest rates will remain on hold for the foreseeable future, however with yesterday’s poor inflation data this may alter the Bank’s focus and today’s minutes could cause some volatility.

Other data of note includes US CPI (Consumer Price Index EX. Food and energy) a key inflation data set and may give an insight into future interest rate movements in the US. In Europe we have a speech by Jean Claude Trichet (head of the European Central Bank) at 17:00 in which he will give his insight into the current European economy and the value of the Euro, this may cause large Euro volatility and anybody with a Euro requirement may wish to secure their currency prior to this release

Finally toward the latter part of the day and out of our trading hours (again could be wise to secure your currency before this release as we will not know the full affect until tomorrow morning) we have the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Minutes at 19:00 and in Japan we have GDP (Gross Domestic Product) data due for release at 00:50.

Fiscal and Monetary Policy

Fiscal and Monetary Policy
Sterling slipped back on Tuesday as stronger than expected UK inflation data fuelled concerns that potential monetary tightening (restricting the UK money supply) and the almost imminent fiscal tightening (increasing governments’ revenues through increased taxes/reducing public spending) may derail the economy's recovery.

Britain's inflation rate jumped more than expected in April to a 17-month high, driven by big rises in tax on alcohol and tobacco, as well as women's clothing and food prices, official data showed on Tuesday.

The Office for National Statistics said consumer prices rose by an annual 3.7% last month compared to 3.4% in March, above economists' forecasts for an increase to 3.5%

Bank of England Governor Mervyn King had adopted a relatively dovish tone in the MPC's quarterly inflation outlook last week, expecting CPI to fall significantly in the next two years. But King was forced to write an open letter to the Chancellor yesterday to explain why inflation remained above the government's 3% top end target.

Swearing in the New Government

With the release of yesterday’s inflation figures we again have seen a shift of focus very much back onto the fundamentals of the UK economy. However today following the re-election of speaker John Bercow to the House of Commons we will see the official swearing in of Government. The swearing-in of MPs is expected to last into Thursday, with the most senior going first. MPs can take a religious oath or a secular affirmation of loyalty to the Crown. The serious business of the Parliament gets under way next week, with the Queen's Speech - outlining the coalition's legislative agenda for the year. This will take place next Tuesday.

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GBP Exchange Rates for Sending Money Overseas

2010-05-13T09:02:00.004+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Now the cabinet has been announced with Nick Clegg as Deputy Prime Minister and Theresa May as the only woman on the cabinet as home secretary today will see more of the new policies from this united government as they come out. What will be of particular interest from a currency perspective is how the emergency budget in 50 days will look. It will be the start of what George Osborne calls, a "significantly accelerated reduction" in the budget deficit. The markets are on the whole taking this coalition as positive but naturally in this new territory they will remain incredibly volatile. It would be sensible to stay in regular contact with your account manager as current exchange rates can move sharply.

Inflation Report

Strong words from Nick Clegg and David Cameron was not enough to save the pound yesterday. The Bank of England produced its quarterly inflation report which forecast inflation will remain below 2%. The Bank said that downside risks to economic growth in the near term had increased and the pace of recovery remained uncertain. The release was a lot more dovish than expected and was probably the main driver for the weakness in the pound as it counteracted the feel good coalition factor.

The bottom line is that interest rates look like they are going to be staying low in the UK for quite some time yet. With the election out the way and even with a few positive economic releases it must not be forgotten that the economy is still in pretty bad shape which is going to keep the pressure on the price of sterling.

Other bad news came later with the number of people unemployed climbing to 2.51 million. On the politics side of things David Cameron has pledged to cut the budget deficit by £6 billion: It will be interesting to see what policies are put forward to do this. The odds are that there are going to be big job cuts in the public sector. Unemployment levels will shoot up but it should be better for the UK in the much longer term and put the pound back on track.

Data Today

This morning sees UK trade balance data at 09:30. The trade balance has recently been improving and the forecast is for another very small improvement. If the figures were to increase at the same pace as they have in the last few months it could be a bonus for sterling and there could be some strength on it.The ECB monthly report is at 09:00 which may give some clues on the European economic situation. Other than that there are number of US releases including jobless claims at 13:30.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP, USD, Euro Exchange Rates

2010-05-12T09:00:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Conservative leader David Cameron last night was confirmed as the new Prime Minister forming a coalition with Lib Dem Nick Clegg who became deputy. As news broke throughout yesterday afternoon and evening it lead to yet another day of extremely volatile exchange rates for the Pound. This ended with Cameron finally entering Downing Street. The Pound rallied as confidence grew in the U.K due to the U.K final seeing some Political certainty in what I personally believe may work very well as both sides appear to be willing to compromise and work together for the good of the country.

Sterling yet again saw huge swings against all major currencies throughout yesterday’s trading shifting nearly 2% from the high to low point during the day.

Political factors have played a huge part in the value of the Pound over the past few days and economic data releases for the U.K have taken a back seat however let us not forget that these will now start to play a large part in the value of the Pound once more as we are reminded just how big the task is

Data out today that may also have a major affect on your currency transfer

There are a number of key releases out today that could well counteract the Sterling gains we saw yesterday from both inside and outside the U.K that you must be aware of, these are as follows:

08:30am - A host of unemployment data due out for the U.K which may be key as the gains we have seen may be wiped out quickly should unemployment levels be particularly high.

09:00am - European GDP (Gross Domestic Product data) This again is key for those with Euro interests as it will highlight how well the economy in Europe has performed as a whole and any figure different to the expected 0.2% growth may cause major market movements.

09:30am - U.K Quarterly inflation report - Mervyn King will present his report on current inflation and will give an indication as to how he wishes to attack it going forward, there may be a mention of when he next plans to raise interest rates.

12:00 - U.S Trade balance - A minimal change from $37.9B to $37.8B is expected in trade balance for the U.S - any change to this may cause further Dollar movement.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP Exchange Rate Forecast and the Live Debates

2010-04-30T08:32:00.003+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today we have little data from the UK but a number of data releases from the US, Canada and Europe to maintain your focus. For those with a GBP/EUR requirement the focus should be placed on the EU CPI data and Unemployment figures due for release at 09.30 – expectations are for inflation figures to fall by 0.1% and unemployment figures to remain at 10%.

For anyone with an interest in the Swiss Franc (CHF) we have a Leading Indicator released at 09:30 by the KOF business institute which measures future trends of the overall economic activity. It captures the movement of GDP growth and the economic trends in Switzerland and could certainly cause some CHF movement.

Other data of significant note includes GDP data from the US and Canada due for release at 13:30 - this can cause significant movements for both the greenback (USD) and loonie (CAD). Gross Domestic Product is considered as a broad measure of coverall economic activity and health and generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the currency in question and falling trend the reverse.

Sovereign Debt and Austerity Measures

Euro exchange rates have struggled over the past days and weeks and yesterday afternoon we were to see further losses against the pound, bringing levels close to the 3 month lows experienced earlier this week. The euro has been falling as investors continued to analyze the affects of Standard and Poor’s downgrades of Greece, Portugal and Spain’s credit ratings and further pressure has been heaped on the Euro as the market waits to hear the austerity measures the country will put in place.

A union official said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had asked debt-laden Greece to raise sales taxes, and scrap salary bonuses amounting to two extra months of pay in the public sector and accept a three-year pay freeze. The IMF, European Union and European Central Bank officials are in Athens to negotiate what could be the largest bailout in history and hope to wrap up a deal within days in an effort to prevent the debt crisis from sinking other fragile EU states (interestingly bookies are now offering odds of 6-4 on Greece not using the Euro by the end of the year!)

“It is expected that details of the package will be announced on Monday and could, in my opinion, stabilize the Euro and we might see some reversal of the current run. For this reason should you need to buy Euros the current levels, to me, look attractive in the short term.” Michael Vaughan – Market Comment.

Final Debate

Following the first live television debates and the policies discussed by the three party leaders the aftermath proved to be positive for the pound – following last night’s final live debate the market has appeared to continue with this pattern with sterling gains being the overriding movement against the majority of major currencies.

A ComRes poll for broadcaster ITV found 35% thought Cameron had won, against 33% for Clegg and 26% for Brown. A Populus survey for the Times newspaper put Cameron and Clegg neck-and-neck on 38% and Brown on 25% Some analysts were not so sure with BBC Political Editor Nick Robinson stating the debate had no clear winner, but after the events of the past 48 hours the momentum entering the final week of the campaign appeared to be with Mr Cameron.

Following the debate, bookies cut their odds on the Conservatives winning the most seats. According to betting on its website, Betfair said the likelihood of the election resulting in a Conservative majority increased by 3 percent over the course of the debate but fears still remain over the possibility of a hung parliament, particularly with the increase in popularity for the Liberal Democrats since the start of the live debates.

In my opinion the market has priced in the possibility of a hung parliament, but I still fear that should this situation arise this could be very damaging for the pound. With this is mind and the austerity measures due for release early next week, I would expect to see some large movements over the course of the next week.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Buying Australian Dollars

2010-04-27T09:01:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Factors that look set to influence GBP and AUD exchange rates today?

- Australian PPI data released this morning showing a 1% increase.
- German consumer confidence figures released at 7am this morning, encouraging the Euro to regain some of yesterday’s lost ground.
- UK mortgage approvals figures, released at 9.30am, keep an eye out for this release, any figure different to 43,200 new mortgages may cause volatility.
- US consumer confidence figures released at 3pm this afternoon. With the US economy seemingly going from strength to strength, any further positive news could bring about some excellent selling opportunities in the short term.

In my opinion, some of the gains seen yesterday could quite easily be wiped out today. If you have a requirement to send money overseas, why not get in touch. Call free today on 0800 328 5884.

Australian inflation and another interest rate hike?

If you need to sell Australian Dollars to buy sterling then tomorrow could well be an excellent day to secure your currency, either on a spot or forward contract.

The Reserve Bank of Australia stated on Friday that no further interest rate hike was expected for May. However, Consumer Price Index figures are released in the early hours of tomorrow morning and expected to show a rise in inflation, which could pressure the central bank into thinking further about using interest rates to control further inflation. CPI is expected to show inflation at 0.8%, an increase from 2009 4th quarter inflation of 0.5%. If the RBA were increasing interest rates whilst inflation was at 0.5%, I believe the next rise could be in the very near future.

If you have a requirement to buy Australian Dollars, it may be wise to get in touch with one of our experienced brokers today to find out how to get the very best Australian Dollars exchange rate.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP Exchange Rate and the Election

2010-04-26T08:45:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of todays report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

The latest UK GDP figures released on Friday morning showed the UK economy grew by 0.2% for the first quarter of the year, lower than the expected 0.4%. The news was disappointing for many although the Pound has remained relatively buoyant against most currencies following a number of recent positive data releases. The weak growth has been partly attributed to the extreme winter conditions and snow in January which meant shoppers stayed at home and many businesses unable to operate effectively due to employee absences. However some optimism remains for those of you hoping the pound will strengthen as the data may well yet be revised up in the coming months as more detailed information for March becomes available. Indeed the last quarterly figures came in initially at 01% but was subsequently revised up to 0.4%, and should the current figures improve in the coming weeks then sterling is likely to benefit substantially. If you want to secure an exchange rate now rather then run the risk that the figures may actually be revised down at a later stage which would likely damage sterling, then why not look at using a forward contract- speak to one of our experienced brokers to find out more.

Hung Parliament Fears Persist

With the May 6th election fast approaching, two of the three leadership debates already out the way, and the polls still largely showing a fairly even split between all three of the main political parties, many analysts fear that a hung parliament is the likely outcome and see this as damaging for the Pound. The problem of a hung parliament lies in the fact that if none of the parties can achieve a majority then they may not be able to force through potentially unpopular legislation to deal with economic problems and budget deficit affecting the UK. The other problem is that in order to maintain power, any government may have to water down legislation or become involved in political horse trading which markets may perceive as a weakness and has been helping to weigh down the pound. In my view though, much of the problems ofa hung parliament have been priced into the value of sterling exchange rates and assumes a workable government would not be achievable. Forecasts for sterling to get back to the 1.20+ level by the end of the year are in my view still potentially correct but obviously more will be known after the final televised leadership debate and indeed the election results are announced and digested on May 6th.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

GBP, USD, CAD Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-04-21T08:43:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Do you currently have a requirement to buy foreign currency or bring money back to the UK? If you do, you may wonder what factors influenced the currency markets yesterday. The main driver for sterling’s gains in my opinion would have been the UK CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation for March was slightly higher than previously expected.

But why did this help strengthen sterling? Because higher inflation generally leads to increases in interest rates, and high interest rates attract investors. Some analysts have been now been lead to believe that the first rise could be as soon as the 4th quarter of 2010. If investors start to gain confidence in the UK once again then typically we would see GBP exchange rates rise as the UK Pound becomes more sought after.

Record insolvency figures

One reason I believe the UK central bank will keep rates on hold is the current economic situation for businesses in the UK. Figures showed at the end of last week that a record number of people were declared insolvent during 2009, and a new 16 year high on insolvency levels for companies.

This has been quoted as just the ‘tip of the iceberg’, with some 19,077 company liquidations in 2009, figures in excess of 20,000 for 2010 are being mentioned.

If servicing debt is currently crippling a record number of businesses and individuals in the UK, then increasing the interest rates could prove fatal for not only those concerned but the economy as a whole.

The current strength of the Canadian Dollar

As watchers of the currency markets may be aware, the Canadian Dollar, or Loonie, experienced a very good run of form during yesterdays’ trading; gaining 1.5% against the Pound.

This was on the back of the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy statement, confirming that Canada’s economic recovery was proceeding somewhat more rapidly than the Bank had projected.

If you have a requirement to buy Canadian Dollars then you may wonder if this trend will continue? Personally, I believe the movements we witnessed yesterday may have been a knee-jerk reaction, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of that ground recovered during today’s trading.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-04-14T08:23:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today we have little data from the UK with US data dominating much of the day. Of note for those with a GBP/EUR interest will be the EU Industrial figures released at 09:30. This shows the volume of production from Industries such as factories and manufacturing - should this figure be positive I would expect to see Euro strength following the release.

As mentioned we have a string of data coming from across the pond starting with CPI data and Retail Sales data at 12:30. Of the two, if I had a USD requirement, I would pay closer attention to the Retail Sales data as even should inflation levels increase it is highly unlikely that the US will be doing anything with interest rates in the short or medium term. The retail sales will show whether the US consumer is spending and is therefore a good indicator of the overall US economic activity. Should these figures increase again I would expect US dollar strength.

Other data of note will include the FED chairman Ben Bernanke giving a press conference at 14:00 as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may influence the volatility of the USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend.

UK Trade Deficit and House Prices

Following a poor start to the week sterling exchange rates improved slightly yesterday against a basket of major currencies as the UK trade deficit narrowed more than expected and stoked optimism the British economy may be on the road to recovery.
Britain's trade deficit narrowed to £6.179 billion pounds in February, its smallest deficit since June 2006 and well below a forecast £7.35 billion, after exports rebounded from weather-related weakness in January. Earlier, data from the British Retail Consortium also showed retail sales jumped at their fastest pace in a year in March.

“The positive data was to move some of the focus away from the upcoming election and the nervousness surrounding a potential hung parliament. This, however, will certainly remain an area of focus for many and should be keenly followed for anyone with a short term transfer.”
Michael Vaughan – Market Comment

Sterling Forecast and Predictions

Although we can never guarantee our predictions will be correct, through studying the markets and attempting to interpret data releases we can try to forecast market movements over the coming weeks and months. If I was a gambling man I would expect the value of sterling to pick up against a basket of currencies once the election has been and passed and we have clear policies in place to combat the UK’s burdening budget deficit. I would not be surprised to see sterling trading at 1.20 by the end of the year, but think it will find little support until Q3. As for GBP/USD I feel this will remain range bound between 1.50-1.60 but could still benefit from the ‘flight to safety’ seen over the past months as it is likely to remain the currency of choice when compared to GBP, EUR and JPY.

Other Currencies

Recently the New Zealand dollar has performed very well against the pound but speculation is mounting that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may consider a more dovish tone to recent months. With a spate of rate hikes many feel rates will remain on hold well into next year, and indeed should this remain the case we could see a reversal of recent market trends bringing some potentially good buying levels for GBP/NZD when compared to of late. A review of interest rates is set for Thursday and should be closely watched for anyone with an interest in this pair.

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GBP Rates Improve

2010-04-09T08:25:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Better than expected UK production and manufacturing figures yesterday morning were the latest set of figures to cast a ray of light on the economic doldrums miring the country at the moment, and combined with a Halifax survey showing a boost in the housing market, helped sterling claw back ground against the Dollar and hit the highest levels in over a month against the Euro. Indeed whilst most UK economic statistics remain weak, many are beginning to exceed modest expectations and have in some cases led to originally poor data being revised up from when it was first published, such as recent GDP figures. Independent think tanks are forecasting the UK could recover at a faster pace than anticipated which has caused markets to re-evaluate exchange rates for the Pound. However a word of caution is always added to these statements that recovery remains fragile and could reverse if not handled correctly.

Euro Woes Continue

Unfortunately for those of you selling euros the news on European data seems to be the inverse of the UK. Recent manufacturing figures came in worse than expected, and Eurostat (the EU’s statistics office) has revised down the GDP figures for the last 3 months of 2009 to zero from the previously reported 0.1% growth bringing the Eurozone perilously close to stagnation.

With the Greek debt crisis once again causing the Euro to slide this week fears are beginning to mount over whether Greece will be able to finance its debt and what will happen if they cannot do so. Despite Trichet stating yesterday that “a default was not an issue for Greece” the lack of a transparent bailout package is causing investors to lose confidence in the Euro as fear grows the sovereign debt issue could engulf other EU states at any time.

Other Currency News

Recent reports in New Zealand have suggested that the currency may be up to 25% overvalued against a basket of currencies and is likely to damage meat and dairy exports- a view that reinforces sentiment here that sterling is undervalued. Look to retails sales figures in NZ next week to see if the domestic market can offset any possible dip in exports. Across the Tasman, the Aussie remains very strong due to the recent interest rate hike by the RBA. With little prospect of rate increases in the UK in the foreseeable future and the hint of another rise Down Under before the end of the year, the Aussie Dollar remains very attractive to investors seeking better interest yields.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP, EUR, USD Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-04-07T08:27:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Rumours emerged yesterday that Greece are trying to renegotiate their bailout package only agreed one week ago. It now seems that they do not want support from the IMF as it will come with strict conditions and instead want to ask US investors for between $5-10 Billion to help cover its main borrowing requirement. This news weakened the EURO and helped push the pound to a nearly 5 week high. If this was to be confirmed I would expect further EURO weakness.

Political parties lead the currency markets

News that the conservatives have increased their lead in the opinion polls helped the pound gain ground against a host of major currencies yesterday. The news offers a degree of reassurance to investors who are nervous about the prospect of a hung parliament. Despite this positive movement I feel that sterling is in for a rocky ride in the lead up to the election on the 6th May.

Today’s Data

At 10.00GMT we have the release of the European GDP figures which are currently predicted by many to improve from last month. This would in turn strengthen the EURO so clients that are looking to buy EURO’s may want to get in contact to remove the risk of potential losses on a currency exchange today.

Other Data you should be speaking to your account manager about if you are sending money abroad in the coming days are:

Australia Unemployment Thur at 2:30
UK Interest rate decision Thur at 12:00
EU Interest rate decision Thur at 13:00

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GBP and USD Exchange Rates

2010-03-31T08:24:00.002+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Yesterday the Pound had a strong day against all major currencies following better than expected revised GDP data and also better than expected house price data.

Firstly, revised GDP data came out at 0.4% and as most predictions were for a figure of 0.3% this led to positive movements for the Pound in early morning trading.

The second positive release of the day was that house prices appear to be on the up according to figures from Nationwide.
This data laws the biggest market mover of the day for the Pound as original predictions were for a month on month drop of 1.1% however figures actually released showed that prices rose by 0.7%.

The consequences of both of these releases going forward are significant, GDP being revised up reduces the chance of a double dip recession and the housing market is one of the key elements of the U.K economy, so anyone looking to sell foreign currency may be sensible to contact their account manager to take advantage of the still favourable rates.

U.S Data this week

As mentioned in yesterday’s report, there are a number of data releases due out later in the week that may have an effect on the strength of the Dollar.

If you have an upcoming Dollar transaction whether it be buying or selling US Dollars then you need to speak to your account manager here at FCD before the following releases:

Today 13:45 - Chicago PMI
Today 14:00 - Factory Orders
Tomorrow 12:30 - Jobless Claims
Tomorrow 14:00 – ISM Manufacturing
Friday (Bank Holiday) – Non Farm Payrolls & Unemployment rate
Canadian GDP Figures

Today the Bank of Canada release Gross Domestic Product data at 12:30pm which once again is a key release for any clients with Canadian Dollar interests whether it be buying or selling Canadian Dollars. Expected is an increase to 0.8% from 0.6% last month which should show that the economy over there is on the up. Personally I would not be surprised to see this data come out even better than expected as recent date releases for Canada have been fairly solid.
Should this be the case the Canadian Dollar would be likely to gain strength and anyone with Canadian Dollars to purchase may wish to consider their options this morning inclusive of limit and stop orders before the data comes out.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP, USD, AUD, CHF Exchange Rates

2010-03-30T08:38:00.003+01:00

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

GBP exchange rates had a relatively good day during yesterday’s trading, showing gains against the majority of currencies. This was on the back of two main factors:

1. Credit rating agency Standard & Poors affirming the UKs AAA rating.
2. Another opinion poll showing the Conservatives with an overall majority in the build up to the election.

Although multiple other polls were showing no outright majority, this was seen as good news for the Pound, expelling some of the uncertainty around a possible hung parliament situation. A question you may ask is will this continue or are there other things sure to affect sterling exchange rates over the coming days?

UK revised 4th Quarter GDP figures

This morning the ONS release their final revision of the UK 4th quarter GDP figures, due out at 9.30am. Expectations are for an upward revision to 0.3% growth. All eyes will be on the actual result however, as with speculation rife around a double dip recession any figure less than expected may cause a considerable sterling slide.

Data out this week that may influence the US Dollar

Even with Good Friday this week, the news does not stop being released the other side of the Pond with Friday seeing the release of US unemployment figures at 1.30pm. Figures are expected to show that this has stayed constant at 9.7%, but with the US seemingly releasing positive economic data by the day, it would not surprise me at all to see their unemployment rate fall on Friday.

Whilst the majority of the UK shall be enjoying a long weekend, the currency markets could quite easily move. To ensure you are in the best position to achieve the very best rate of exchange, be it buying or selling US Dollars, it is imperative that your account manager is aware of your requirements.

Other data due out which may affect CHF and AUD exchange rates

Shortly after midnight tonight the Australian Bureau for Statistics release their retail sales figures for February, with a contraction from 1.2% to 0.3% expected. To me, with Australia being one of the best performing economies across the globe at present, this seems strange and quite possibly wide of the mark. Figures are released at 12.30am tomorrow and any release different to expected may cause GBPAUD volatility.

At 8.30am tomorrow morning, we have the release of Switzerland’s manufacturing purchasing manager’s index figures for March. Once again this is expected to show that another economy is outperforming the UK with an predicted rise to 59.1; any figure over 50 is positive and may cause Franc strength, and in turn GBPCHF exchange rates to fall.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Exchange Rate Movements this Week

2010-03-22T08:47:00.003Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

This week will be important in particular for sterling exchange rates with the Budget released on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see Alistair Darling's predictions and in particular the forecasts for growth. Already this morning we have had a release from the Ernst and Young Item club that has warned of a sluggish recovery for the UK. A similar forecast was issued by the Confederation of British Industry that expects the economy to grow by 1% in 2010, with the recovery remaining subdued until the middle of next year. In contrast the government has forecast growth of 1.25% this year and 3.5% for 2011.

Both the CBI and the Item Club called for more detail on the government's plans to cut and close the deficit in the budget over the coming years. The borrowing required to fill the deficit is now expected to be less than the £178bn predicted by Mr Darling in the pre-Budget report last year, but the ITEM Club said that the chancellor could make cuts totalling £25bn over the next five years in order to tackle the budget deficit without damaging the UK's economic prospects.

How will this affect Exchange Rates

Should the budget be perceived as particularly damaging to the UK consumer in the form of higher tax and reduced government spending, which is very much needed, then I would expect this to reflect on the pound poorly. For this reason anybody looking to to purchase currency using sterling may wish to look at this before Wednesday.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rates and What is likely to Drive the Market

2010-03-19T08:20:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today is a relatively quiet day from the pounds point of view with no major data releases due from the UK. For those that have a GBP/EUR requirement however, you should pay attention to German PPI (Producer Price Index) data released this morning. This index is a good indicator as to inflation levels within Germany and this being the largest economy within the Euro Zone can drive Euro exchange rates (figures were released at 07:00 and came in at exactly 0% with the expected figure to be at 0.1%, down from 0.8% the previous month).

Other data of note comes from Canada with no major releases due from the US either. In Canada we have Consumer Price Index figures at 11:00. This is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. It is expected to come in at 0.1% above the previous month and if this is the case I would expect to see CAD strength against the pound.

GBP Rates have improved this week – will this continue?

As one of the UK’s largest independent currency brokers we have a number of tools at our disposal to safeguard your rate of exchange, including the use of forward contracts that, for a nominal deposit, allow you to fix your rate of exchange for up to two years in advance. With the pound reaching three week highs against the Euro and USD this week, is it time to take advantage of these contracts?

In my opinion I believe the pound will continue to struggle against the USD and I feel the flight to safety factor will continue to give the dollar strength, what is less clear is GBP/EUR. Sterling exchange rates were helped yesterday by UK public finances data that was much better than forecast. The Office for National Statistics said public sector net borrowing in February was £12.361 billion ($18.88 billion), below economists' forecast of £14.75 billion and this boosted the pound gaining over 0.5% against the Euro yesterday, continuing the positive gains from Wednesday.

Concerns still weigh on the pound from political instability but the recent positive unemployment data, improved budget deficit figures, and the unanimous 9-0 vote to keep Quantitative Easing on hold has given sterling, for some, a much needed boost. It has also deflected much of the attention from the talk of a ‘hung parliament’ and the fact that the economy and business sentiment as a whole is the most important thing, and not the election. For this reason I feel GBP/EUR is precariously placed and almost impossible to call, all I would say is that over a 2 cent movement in the pounds favour this week must represent a good buying opportunity.

Other Currencies

The Swiss franc recently hit fresh year highs against the pound (Wednesday) and continued yesterday on speculation the Swiss National Bank would raise interest rates. M. Danthine, a SNB board member simply was quoted as saying “prepare for higher interest rates and no FX intervention”. Should this come to fruition expect CHF rates to continue in this manner in the coming days and possibly weeks.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-03-17T09:10:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today will be an important day for the pound with the release of the Bank of England minutes from the latest interest rate meeting. This will show how the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted with regards to interest rates but possibly more importantly Quantitative Easing. At the meeting earlier in the month the MPC decided not to extend the asset purchasing programme and the minutes will show whether this was a unanimous decision. If it was I would expect to see sterling strength, however if any of the members voted for an extension we could see some sterling losses.

This in my view will be the major data release for the day however we also have a report from the European Commission, that as reported yesterday, is likely to report that the UK is not in line to cut its deficit in line with EU rules by the deadline of 2015. Sterling initially weakened yesterday due to the draft report that states the European Commission recommends more fiscal cuts in the UK and added to concerns over a spiralling budget deficit. For anyone with a GBP/EUR requirement this is worth paying attention to.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rates this Week

2010-03-15T08:41:00.003Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

After a turbulent start to the month sterling exchange rates began to stabilise last week with most major currency pairs seeing up to 1% less between the high and low of the week compared to the first week of March. Sterling has started poorly this morning however following some poor house data released overnight. In the early hours of the morning Rightmove announced that UK house prices were up by just 0.1% in March compared to 3.2% in February.

Sterling is likely, in my opinion, to continue this rocky start as investors anxiously await Wednesday's Bank of England minutes due for release at 09:30. Should the minutes hint at any potential for the Bank to extend its Quantitative Easing programme then we could easily see sterling continue to slide.

Data Affecting GBP Exchange Rates

Other date of note this week includes Euro Zone inflation data on tomorrow at 10:00am, although I would expect little movement following this as inflation levels currently appear to be under control. Should you have a USD requirement the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Tuesday evening is key (again no change expected) and Consumer Price figures also for the US are released on Thursday at 12:30pm.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Buying Foreign Currency and Sending Overseas

2010-03-12T08:43:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Sterling was to have a good day in a movement very much against the recent trend. Much of the pounds gains were seen following the release of the Bank of England inflation survey, which showed that inflation expectations for 2010 were slightly higher than previously expected. Under a stable economy this would tend to suggest the need for interest rates to be raised and was possibly the main drive behind the pounds gains, however, in the current economic climate the possibility of a rate rise is unlikely and these gains could be short lived.

Data Affecting You Currency Transfer

Today we have little data from the UK but have major releases coming from the European Union in the form of Industrial Production figures released at 10:00. As shown earlier in the week from the UK, these figures can have a huge impact on exchange rates and expect volatility for GBP/EUR and USD/EUR. Elsewhere we have unemployment figures from Canada at 12:00 and Retail Sales figures from the US at 13:30.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Current GBP Trends and Forecast

2010-03-11T08:30:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Today is a relatively quiet day from the pounds point of view with no major data releases due from the UK. For those that have a GBP/EUR requirement however, you should pay attention to the European Central Banks Monthly Report at 09:00.

This report will give a detailed analysis of the current economic conditions within the Euro Zone and give an insight into future Monetary Policy the ECB may have in store. For anyone buying Euros it may well be worth waiting for this release as with the current economic conditions facing much of Europe, and Greece in particular, I would not be surprised to see some Euro weakness following the report.

Much of the data being released this afternoon comes from across the pond with Jobless claims from the US at 13:30 and also importantly US Trade Balance figures also due for release at 13:30. These figures show the difference between exported and imported goods and services in the US - should the trade surplus be falling we may see stronger USD exchange rates continuing the recent strong run for the dollar.

Elsewhere we have the Swiss National Bank releasing their latest interest rate decision at 13:00 and retail sales released from New Zealand at 21:45.

How poor data can affect my currency transfer?

Yesterday was a perfect example as to how poor data releases can dramatically move the market and make your money transfers more expensive than you bargained for. Sterling fell to a one-week low against the dollar and euro after data showed an unexpected fall in British manufacturing. Official figures showed that UK manufacturing output fell 0.9% in January, its fastest pace since August and added to a market already reeling from political and economic worries.

Already weighing on the pound are fears about a hung parliament as flagged by political opinion polls on Tuesday and concerns about Britain's sovereign ratings after Fitch Ratings agency highlighted the country's deteriorating credit profile.
Gordon Brown was quick to defend the current economic situation stating he believed Britain would maintain its coveted top credit rating and announced a pay freeze for senior civil servants and military officers to help tame a record budget deficit.

To buy or not to buy?

The burning question many of my clients are asking is what should I do with my requirement in the current climate? My overriding response at the moment is that with the current market conditions being so volatile, this is not a market to be messing with. Currently sterling exchange rates are taking somewhat of a hit falling heavily against nearly all currencies and breaking records along the way (25 year low against the Canadian and Australian Dollar for example). For some this creates fantastic selling opportunities, for which I would certainly recommend taking advantage of if you can, for those looking to buy, however, the picture is rather bleak.

Much of the focus is currently being placed on the political instability this country is faced with. To some this may come across as an annoying broken record, but to me this is one factor I believe cannot and should not be ignored. I would not be surprised to see the pound take further losses in the run up to the election, with the view that we will not see any form of stability until concrete policies are in place to reduce the UK’s burdening budget deficit. Should you have a different opinion I would certainly be interested to know your comments, why not email me mgv@currencies.co.uk

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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What could move GBP Exchange Rates Today?

2010-03-10T08:47:00.003Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Following on from yesterday’s trading I believe the key issues for sterling exchange rates today, will be the UK’s banking sector and fiscal health, particularly against the euro and US Dollar.

Yesterday, rating agency Moody’s warned that UK banks could have their financial-strength ratings cut as state support is withdrawn. This is bad news for the UK Banking sector and looking ahead, is likely to have a negative effect on the pound over the coming weeks.

Another key concern surrounding sterling is the huge national debt in the UK. Trade deficit figures showed an unexpected widening in January to the largest in 17 months, despite the recent weakness in the pound. While this is also an issue for some countries in the Eurozone, like Greece and Portugal, in terms of exchange rates, I think it is more relevant to the UK because our Government is allowing the pound to weaken, to help tackle the situation.

If you are worried about the pound weakening further against the Euro, USD or any other currency, speak to Foreign Currency Direct or email me mgv@currencies.co.uk

Other factors that could affect GBP exchange rates

I believe there will be continued concerns over the prospect of a hung parliament this week. A new poll by The Times has indicated Labour and the Conservatives are close in the marginal seats. As previous market reports have discussed, this is a key issue because it leads to uncertainty regarding how the UK will deal with national debt and the budget deficit.

Yesterday was a prime example of how some data releases have been overshadowed by economic concerns and political uncertainty. UK retail sales bounced back well from last month but there was no reprieve at all for the pound as the market focused on the more negative issues discussed. I believe this will be the case today when the UK GDP estimate is released by the NIESR. In the past this has caused some notable market movement, but I would be surprised to see any significant effect, even if we do see a positive figure.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rates Continue to Struggle on Political Uncertainty

2010-03-09T08:32:00.004Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

One major contributing factor to the pounds fall in recent weeks is the current political landscape. If the UK is to have any hope of a sustained recovery then the country needs strong and decisive leadership. The UK currently faces a potentially catastrophic situation in the form of a 'hung parliament' whereby neither of the major parties gains a majority at the general election.

Implications of Political Uncertainty or a 'hung parliament'

A hung parliament would mean that any legislation designed by parliament to aid UK recovery may not be passed and therefore seriously hamper the any form of recovery. As a result I can see little value for sterling until a clear path for UK politics is seen. With this in mind the benefit of using forward contracts to secure and safeguard your rate of exchange can clearly be seen, should you wish to discuss the implications behind this form of contract then please email me mgv@currencies.co.uk

Euro Zone and its Debt Problems

Whilst it may seem doom and gloom in the UK the Euro Zone is fairing little better, if at all. Yesterday we saw the Portuguese government announce new austerity measures to help cut their levels of debt to prevent them from reaching the levels of Greece and the UK. Following this news the IMF commented that they felt the problems in Greece will be contained and not affect the rest of of the Euro Zone - giving the Euro a boost yesterday afternoon.

I personally feel that the long term growth for the Euro Zone will be difficult and for this reason hope the pound may see some respite in the longer term.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP and USD Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-03-05T08:37:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website.

Yesterday as most had predicted the Bank of England held its base interest rate at 0.5% and decided not to extend its Quantitative Easing measures. This proved to be good news for the pound against the Euro as it gained over 0.5% however the USD was to continue its very strong run.

Greek Measures assist Eur/USD Rates

The Euro was to gain some support against the USD as Greece unveiled a host of new measures aimed at tackling the national debt crisis, the question for many however is will they work and do they have the backing of the EU and Euro zone as a whole? In many ways the political implications of not supporting Greece may be too catastrophic for the EU and as a result it looks as though problems of Sovereign debt will remain in Europe for some time. Interestingly enough though a recent poll in Germany has shown that 86% of Germans are opposed to bailing out Greece, therefore any decision made is bound to create unrest in the Euro zone and volatility in their exchange rates.

Brown To Testify

Today Gordon Brown is due to give evidence in his role in the Iraq inquiry and with the focus very much on politics at the moment, and in particular the potential for a 'hung parliament' at the coming election, it will be interesting to hear and see the reaction to Brown's appearance.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rates Improve on PMI Data

2010-03-04T08:32:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Sterling exchange rates, very much against the recent trend, had a positive day yesterday gaining against a basket of major currencies. The biggest movement of note was against the USD and NZD gaining over 1% against each respective currency.

UK PMI Data on the Up

Much of the pounds gains appeared to come from the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which came in better than forecast and showing a healthy expansion. PMI is an indicator for economic activity and roughly speaking it reflects the percentage of purchasing managers in a certain economic sector that reported better business conditions than in the previous month. For this reason a better than expected reading would tend to have a positive affect on that countries currency as we were to see yesterday.

Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

Today we have the Bank of England interest rate decision due for release at 12:00. Again most would expect to see the base rate remain on hold at 0.5% but any announcement with regards to QE will be of key importance. Most expect QE to remain on hold but any deviation could cause large GBP volatility.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Pound Continues to struggle before Interest Rate Decision Tomorrow

2010-03-03T08:44:00.003Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

With the pound still reeling from the very documented political instability issues with regards to a hung parliament, eyes for the rest of the week will very much be focused on tomorrow's Bank of England interest rate decision. Again I would expect to see no change in the UK's base rate (currently standing at 0.5%), however for those with an up coming currency requirement what will be key will be any announcement with regards Quantitative Easing. Should there even be slight move towards an increase in the asset purchasing programme I would not be surprised to see GBP rates fall further.

USD rally as 'flight to safety' continues

The US dollar has continued its strong run as the currency of choice for the nervous investor. Continuing to gain from a 'flight to safety' over concerns in Europe with Greece and the UK from political instability there is little reason to suggest that this movement will end. For those bringing USD's back into the UK this is potentially good news, however, should you be looking to buy dollars, you may want to utilise a forward contract. To discuss this further please email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Greece Awaits more Spending Cuts

Today Governors meet in Greece to discuss plolicies designed to reduce the huge budget deficit the country is currently running. A rise in sales tax and petrol and diesel tariffs is expected, as well as a move to scrap the generous holiday bonus paid to civil servants. Businesses in Greece are likely to react badly to further tax increases, as they see them as being counter-productive, discouraging consumer spending and contributing to a further downward spiral. In turn we may expect this to cause volatility between GBP and Euro exchange rates.

Should you be buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Sterling down following possibility of a 'Hung Parliament'

2010-03-02T08:34:00.002Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Yesterday was the worst day for the pound since February 2009 losing over 2% against the USD and Euro. Other significant losses were seen against the the CAD (over 2.2%), AUD (over 2.2%) and CHF (over 2%).

Hung Parliament

Much of yesterday's losses can be attributed to a recent YouGov poll released in the Sunday Times showing the Conservatives lead over labour has shrunk to just 2 points and significantly increases the opportunity of a hung parliament where no single party achieves a majority. This has knocked confidence in the fact that neither party is likely to provide much confidence in policies designed to cut the UK's growing budget deficit.

Future for Sterling

Following these recent polls further bad news was heaped on the pound following poor mortgage approval data released yesterday and the significant sell off of GBP following the announcement of Prudential agreeing to take over the Asian arm of AIG for $35bn.

AUD Keeps Strengthening

This morning Australia released their latest interest rate decision and have increased the base rate further to 4%, the 4th increase in six months. Following this the AUD has continued to strengthen against the pound, great news for anyone selling dollars.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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GBP Exchange Rates Down Following GDP Data on Friday

2010-03-01T08:35:00.004Z

This is a brief summary of todays report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Revised GDP figures out stated that the economy grew by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2009. This showed that the UK emerged out of recession more strongly than first predicted. This I thought is surely great news for the UK and more importantly for our readers, the pound. But after the announcement by the ONS the pound weakened. You may be asking why this had a negative effect on the pound?

I believe that the UK exiting the recession has brought fears of a so-called double-dip and ignited concerns that the extra growth has been borrowed from this quarter. With that I mean a lot of shoppers had brought forward their purchases to beat the rise in VAT. This has increased the possibility that the GDP figures for this quarter could be worse than those for the end of 2009 which will push the UK back into the red and seriously weaken sterling in the short to medium term.

Political Instability Affecting the Pound as well as GDP

The UK is experiencing real economic and political uncertainty at the moment. Party leaders of both Labour and Conservatives had conferences this weekend with the Tories branding their election slogan Vote for change. They outlined six themes which they believe will win them the election. National debt, the economy, family, NHS, schools and changes in Westminster. Cameron said their plans will be bold and radical.

Gordon Brown fought back stating we can we must and we will win the election. After the weekend the Tories lead was cut to just 2 points in the opinion polls.

With the UK possibly facing a situation of a hung parliament we could see a tricky run for the pound. With neither party seemingly gaining any confidence in the public it will keep the UK’s hefty deficit firmly in the headlines and until we see detailed tax and spending plans from whatever government takes power Sterling exchange rates could suffer.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Sterling Exchange Rates may suffer following GDP Data

2010-02-26T08:41:00.008Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

This morning Sterling has started poorly continuing its recent poor run. This is very much in anticipation of the revised UK GDP figures due for release at 09:30 this morning. Early indications suggest figures will be revised up from 0.1% to 0.2% but I would be very surprised if this was the case and in fact a number of analysts expect the figures to be revised downwards. Should this be the case I would expect to see some strong sterling losses, for this reason should you have an upcoming requirement and would like to discuss the options open to you then please email me at mgv@currencies.co.uk

Why is GDP so important?

This is classified as one of the most important data releases as a country’s Gross Domestic Product is one of the most accepted and widely recognised data sets for gauging the level of activity in an economy. The point of looking at growth in GDP is that it flows through into things like earnings growth, disposable income, interest rates, etc. For example if economic growth is consistently high, you would expect that on average companies’ earnings will be growing. Should these figures be falling then as you can imagine this tends to have a negative affect on this country's respective earnings and hence its currency.

If you are buying a property abroad, and want the best exchange rates, just click on the links below to go straight to our main site, or Click Here to Send me an Email

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Sterling Exchange Rate Forecast

2010-02-25T08:44:00.005Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

Tomorrow at 09:30 the latest official revised figures for UK GDP will be announced. This is the key driver for Sterling exchange rates over the coming days. As most of you will be aware the UK exited recession in the fourth quarter of 2009 with a weak 0.1% growth and analysts are optimistic of an upward revision to 0.2% growth. Should these figures be better expect good GBP strength, should the figures be as expected or worse then we could see heavy GBP losses.

German GDP

Yesterday at 07:00 we had Germany's latest GDP figures. Th results were to show quite a heavy drop from the previous 0.7% growth down to zero growth. We were, however, to see little in the form of Euro weakness which was slightly surprising and shows the market may have prices in this movement.

Ben Bernanke Testifies

Yesterday afternoon the Federal Reserve Chairman was speaking with regards the recovery of the US economy. He stated that interest rates in the US needed to stay at record low levels for an 'extended period', echoing comments from the Bank of England and European Central Bank in recent months.

I would have expected this to have weakened USD exchange rates but in fact we have seen the reverse and suggests to me that Sterling is suffering following the announcement that the Bank of England has not ruled out further Quantitative Easing which has dramatically hurt the pound in recent months.

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GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona

Sterling Down Following German GDP Data

2010-02-24T08:58:00.003Z

This is a brief summary of today's report. Click here to read the full report on our main website

German GDP figures were released at 07:00 GMT this morning and as expected showed a contraction from previous results to 0% or no growth at all. Yesterday afternoon we were to see GBP exchange rates improve and this is likely to have been in anticipation of these results pricing them into the market before the official release. This can often be the problem with the currency market as market expectation is often priced in before the release, and should this expectation be incorrect, you can see a movement that you would find very hard to predict.

Another Shrimp on the barbie?

Anyone that has been paying attention to GBP/AUD exchange rates would have seen the Australian Dollar performing incredibly well against the pound in recent weeks. Following yesterday's movement we have now in fact reached a fresh 25 year high against the dollar creating some fantastic selling opportunities for anybody bring money back from Australia. Much of the movement has been caused by improving commodity prices and also by the steady interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia, with speculation this may continue in the coming months.

GBP Sterling USD Dollar EUR Euro NZD Kiwi AUD Aussie DKK Krona CAD Loonie CHF Swiss ZAR Rand THB Baht HKD Dollar CZK Krona TRY Lira SEK Krona NOK Krona